Tigres UANL vs Pachuca Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Liga MX Apertura

Pachuca just won at the league leaders behind the Apertura's runaway top scorer, yet the Tuzos still have not won at home all season. Tigres has not won away either, and something has to give at the Hidalgo on Saturday between two big names stuck outside the Liguilla places.

The Matchup

Salomón Rondón is having the season everyone else is chasing. The Pachuca striker has 13 goals, five more than any other player in the league, and he leads a side that just won 2-1 at league-leading América on October 26. Pachuca is 4-4-6 and dangerous in a way its thirteenth place hides, with four wins already on the road.

Tigres, fifteenth at 3-6-5, leans on one man almost as heavily. Juan Brunetta has 8 of Tigres's 15 goals, and he scored the equalizer in the 1-1 draw at Pumas on October 25. The difference is what happens around them. Pachuca spreads its threat through Oussama Idrissi and Rodolfo Pizarro, while Tigres has scored 6 goals in eight away matches.

Neither club has named its side yet. The expectation is Rondón leading Pachuca again after starting at América, with Sergio Barreto back in defense after returning from suspension in that match. Pachuca remains without Andrés Arroyo and Alexéi Domínguez, who are sidelined with foot injuries.

For Tigres, Brunetta is expected to start after his goal at Pumas, but the back line is missing Joaquim Pereira, who is out with a grade one hamstring tear that the club expects to keep him sidelined for two to three weeks. A defense without its anchor, facing the league's form striker, is the problem Tigres has to solve first.

Key Factors

Tigres's away record is the number that will not go away. Eight road matches, no wins, four draws, four defeats, and a goal return that forces Tigres to defend perfectly to get anything.

Brunetta's share of the attack makes the visitors predictable, and Pachuca can shade coverage toward him in a way sides cannot do against Rondón, because Idrissi and Pizarro punish the extra attention. Pachuca's own form line is moving the right way, with the win at América following a 2-1 home loss to Cruz Azul that was competitive throughout.

The counterpoint is Pachuca's home record, and it is stark. Six home matches, no wins, three draws and three defeats, with 13 goals conceded at the Hidalgo. If any side can extend that drought, it is a Tigres team that has drawn six times this season and is comfortable making a game ugly, and a draw sinks a moneyline bet completely.

There is also the short week to weigh, Pachuca played Monday night in Mexico City while Tigres played Sunday. The read is that Rondón's form and Tigres's missing defender outweigh a home drought built largely against stronger visitors than this version of Tigres.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.