Tijuana vs Necaxa Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Liga MX Apertura

Tijuana are sixth and unbeaten in five matches when they visit Necaxa in Aguascalientes on Friday night, and the hosts are seventeenth, winless in five, and still being priced as the shorter side at home.

The Matchup

Necaxa are seventeenth at 2-4-9, and the last five matches explain the slide. They drew 3-3 with Pachuca, lost at Atlas and at home to Guadalajara, drew 1-1 with Juárez, and lost 0-1 to Santos on November 1, a winless run built on a defense that has conceded 28 goals in 15 matches.

Julian Carranza is the one reliable threat, with 7 goals and 2 assists on a team-high 38 shots, and Owen Gonzalez is next with 3 goals, so a Necaxa game plan that does not run through Carranza does not really exist. The problem is what happens behind him, because Necaxa have conceded 1.88 goals per home match and keep giving visiting sides the second goal that finishes games.

Tijuana are sixth at 5-7-3, unbeaten in five, and their problem is the opposite one. Four of those five matches were draws, including a 3-3 at Monterrey on November 1, alongside a 4-1 win at Santos that showed what this side does when a game opens up.

Gilberto Mora has 5 goals, Mourad El Ghezouani has 4 on a team-high 25 shots, and Ignacio Rivero has 4 more, so the scoring arrives from midfield as well as the front line. Neither club has named its side yet. Necaxa are expected to keep the shape from the Santos match, while Tijuana are expected to stay in the back five they used at Monterrey, with El Ghezouani expected to lead the line.

Key Factors

The market still prices Necaxa as the home side in a pick'em kind of game, and their season does not support it. Tijuana score 1.57 goals per match on their travels, more than Necaxa score at home, and they face a defense conceding close to two a game in its own stadium.

The draw is the result that shapes everything here, because Tijuana collect them and Necaxa cannot afford them. A quarter line is built for exactly that shape. Tijuana backers are covered on the result Tijuana produce most often on the road, and paid in full on the result their form says is just as likely against a side this low on confidence.

The honest counterpoint is that Tijuana's draws cut both ways. A side that has drawn four of its last five is a side that keeps letting leads and positions slip, and Necaxa at home, desperate and with Carranza in form, are capable of the one complete performance that has been missing for a month.

Tijuana have also conceded 2.00 goals per away match, so this is not a pick built on the visitors keeping a clean sheet. If Necaxa score twice, Tijuana probably have to score three, and that is a bigger ask than the league position suggests.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.