Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - MLS

Philadelphia Union close the regular season at Subaru Park with sixth place in the East still theirs to lose, and Toronto FC arrive in Chester scoring freely and defending like a side with nothing left to protect. Saturday's finale pairs a home side that has gone quiet at the wrong end of the year with visitors who have found goals in five straight matches.

The Matchup

Philadelphia's season has been built on volume. The Union have scored 62 goals in 33 matches, Milan Iloski has 19 of them with 6 assists and Bruno Damiani has 12, and at Subaru Park the attack has run hotter still, scoring 2.62 goals a game across the home matches pulled since August.

That is the side Toronto has to survive, and Toronto's road defending offers little comfort. Toronto have conceded 63 goals this season, 2.29 a game on their recent travels, and their last five matches have produced 10 goals scored and 11 conceded, shootouts in both directions.

Neither club has named its side yet. The expectation for Philadelphia is the 4-4-2 used at Cincinnati on October 31, Andre Blake behind Nathan Harriel, Neil Pierre, Kai Wagner and Frankie Westfield, with Jovan Lukic and Quinn Sullivan in the middle lines and Damiani leading the line again alongside Ezekiel Alladoh.

Toronto are expected to keep the 4-3-3 from the trip to Atlanta, Luka Gavran in goal, Jonathan Osorio and Djordje Mihailovic in midfield, and Josh Sargent and Dániel Sallói, who have 9 goals each, in the front three with Theo Corbeanu. Sallói has added 7 assists to his 9 goals, and Toronto's front line is the one part of this team still producing at full rate.

The tension is Philadelphia's finish to the season. Since winning 3-1 at Chicago on October 15, the Union have drawn with Charlotte, lost at home to New England, drawn 0-0 at Nashville and lost 1-0 at Cincinnati, scoring once across the last three matches. The home crowd gets a side that should win and a side that has stopped winning well.

Key Factors

The number that frames this game is the gap between Philadelphia's reputation and its current margin. The Union's home scoring rate says they should pull away, but the last three matches produced a single goal, and a favorite that stops scoring early stops covering big handicaps. Toronto, for all their defensive faults, have scored in five straight matches, including twice at Columbus and twice in the win at Red Bull New York, so the visitors only need to stay in reach for the handicap to hold.

The honest counterpoint is Toronto's away defending, which has been the worst habit of their season. If Iloski and Damiani find the early goal Philadelphia's home games usually promise, Toronto have to chase, and a chasing Toronto side has conceded four at Columbus within the last fortnight.

What beats this pick is a return to the Union's early-autumn home form, two goals before halftime and a game that opens up. The protection is structural. Toronto can lose by one and still win on half the ticket with the other half pushed, which is the right shape against a favorite whose attack has gone cold at the end of a long season.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.