Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - MLS

The regular season ends at TQL Stadium with Nashville SC first in the Eastern Conference and FC Cincinnati seventh. Nashville have conceded 25 goals in 33 matches, while Cincinnati have scored 67 and conceded 73. Sam Surridge has 19 goals for Nashville and Kévin Denkey 17 for Cincinnati, and the defenses behind them are not close.

The Matchup

Nashville SC have been the Eastern Conference's most complete side all season, first at 22-8-3 with 69 goals scored and 25 conceded, and their closing run has looked like it. They beat Sporting Kansas City 4-0, drew 1-1 at San Jose Earthquakes, won 2-0 at CF Montréal, drew 0-0 with Philadelphia Union, and beat Red Bull New York 3-2, unbeaten in five with 10 scored and 3 conceded. The front two explain most of it.

Sam Surridge has 19 goals and Hany Mukhtar has 17 goals and 8 assists, and Cristian Espinoza has supplied 15 assists from wide areas. Nashville are expected to run back the 4-4-2 that beat Red Bull New York, Brian Schwake in goal, Espinoza and Elias Saad wide, and Surridge and Mukhtar paired up front. They do not need the ball to hurt a side. They defend their box, break in numbers, and finish.

FC Cincinnati can score with anyone and defend like few of the sides above them would dare. Seventh at 12-10-11, they have scored 67 and conceded 73, and their last five show both halves of that. They lost 2-0 to Columbus Crew, then beat D.C. United 2-1 and 2-0 in back-to-back meetings, drew 2-2 at Inter Miami CF, and beat Philadelphia 1-0.

Kévin Denkey has 17 goals and Tom Barlow 10, and Pavel Bucha has 10 assists. Evander, who has 14 goals and 16 assists this season, was not in the eleven that beat Philadelphia, where Cincinnati are expected to stay close to the side that started there, Roman Celentano in goal and Denkey and Barlow up front in a 3-1-4-2. Whether Evander starts or arrives from the bench, Cincinnati's plan is the same. Get forward, load the box, and accept what that leaves behind them.

Key Factors

The matchup turns on what Cincinnati's attacking shape leaves open. A side that has conceded 73 goals in 33 matches is not unlucky. It is structural, full-backs high and space behind them, and Nashville are built to play into that space, with Mukhtar dropping off the front to find Surridge running the channels and Espinoza arriving late. Nashville's own defensive record is the other half of the case.

Twenty-five conceded in 33, and 3 in their last five, behind a settled back four that protects Schwake well, and Cincinnati's home scoring in recent home matches has come against sides far less organized than this one. Denkey is a genuine threat in the air and Cincinnati will create their share, which is why the draw has to be faced plainly. Cincinnati are unbeaten in four, they are at home on the final day, and a level game beats a moneyline pick outright.

That risk is real, and it is still the smaller one. Nashville have lost 3 matches all season, and the way they lose is rare enough that Cincinnati would need one of their best defensive days of the year to produce it, on the evidence of 33 matches of the opposite. Cincinnati's likelier route is the draw, sitting on a level game late, and Nashville's patience is the answer to it. Few sides in this league are happier to keep a final-day game tight into the last half hour and then win it with one break.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.