New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - MLS

The regular season ends at Inter&Co Stadium with Orlando City SC ninth in the Eastern Conference and New England Revolution third. Orlando have conceded 78 goals in 33 matches and scored 62, and New England arrive on the back of four wins in five. Antoine Griezmann has 14 goals in 17 matches for Orlando and Carles Gil runs New England's attack with 13 goals and 12 assists.

The Matchup

Orlando City SC games have been the East's most reliable entertainment all season, and the numbers explain why. Ninth at 12-7-14, they have scored 62 goals and conceded 78, and their last five have swung between a 3-3 draw at Toronto FC, a 4-1 win over D.C. United, 2-2 draws with New York City FC and Chicago Fire FC, and a 4-0 defeat at Charlotte FC. The attacking talent is real.

Antoine Griezmann has 14 goals and 8 assists in 17 matches, Martín Ojeda has 16 goals, Iván Angulo has 7 goals and 8 assists, and Justin Ellis has 11 assists. Orlando are expected to run back the 4-4-2 beaten at Charlotte, Maxime Crépeau in goal, Angulo and Marco Pasalic wide, and Ojeda and Griezmann up front. When that front four clicks, Orlando can score on anyone. The problem is everything behind it, where a defense that has conceded 78 times asks Crépeau, who has made 133 saves, to bail it out most weeks.

New England Revolution arrive third at 18-4-11 and in strong recent shape. They won 3-2 at FC Cincinnati, beat Chicago Fire FC 1-0, won 2-1 at Philadelphia Union, and beat Red Bull New York 3-2, before a 2-1 home defeat to Inter Miami CF on November 2, scoring 10 and conceding 7 across the five. Carles Gil remains the side's center of gravity, with 13 goals and 12 assists, Dor Turgeman has 12 goals, and Peyton Miller has 7 goals and 9 assists.

New England are expected to run back the side that faced Miami, Matt Turner in goal, Gil central in a 4-2-3-1, and Turgeman, Dániel Gazdag and Miller in the attacking places. Turner has made 135 saves this season, a workload that says New England give up chances too. This is a meeting of two attacks in form and two defenses that have spent the season busy.

Key Factors

The shape of the game points one way. Orlando have scored 17 across their last eight home matches, and their season leak is heavily a road problem, which cuts both ways here. It means the home defense is better than the headline number, and it also means Orlando commit numbers forward at home in a way they never do away. New England's away scoring in the same span runs at nearly two a game, and Gil against a midfield that chases the game is a mismatch New England will enjoy.

Both goalkeepers sitting above 130 saves tells its own story about the volume of shots these defenses allow, and final-day games between sides with settled positions rarely tighten up. The counterpoint is Orlando's Charlotte collapse. A side that can be shut out 4-0 a week ago can also produce the one flat home performance that kills a goals bet, and if the first hour is careful, the late goals this pick needs may never come.

The honest read is that a careful first hour is the less likely script. Orlando have scored in four of their last five and conceded in all five, New England have scored in five straight, and neither side has a reason to protect a result on the final afternoon. One early goal opens this game up completely, because Orlando cannot sit on a lead with that defense and New England will not stop coming.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.