TSG Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Bundesliga

Werder Bremen are unbeaten in five and keep rescuing games late, and Hoffenheim arrive in Bremen fresh from humbling Leverkusen but without Alexander Prass, sent off in that game. The Weserstadion rarely does quiet afternoons.

The Matchup

Hoffenheim produced the result of last weekend, beating Leverkusen 3-0 at home with three goals in the final stretch. Andrej Kramaric opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 79th minute, Alexander Prass added the second, and Max Moerstedt finished it in stoppage time. It was a statement win, and Hoffenheim still sit 10th, because their season has lurched between afternoons like that and flat ones, with no draws and no middle ground.

Werder are 6th and unbeaten in five, and the run has a shape. They came back to draw 2-2 at Dortmund, drew 2-2 with Paderborn at home, and won 3-2 at Mainz on Saturday. This team does not protect a game state, it attacks it, and at home it has scored 8 goals in three games. Neither club has named its side yet. The expectation is Niclas Füllkrug leading the line again in the 4-2-3-1 Werder used at Mainz, with Marco Grüll wide, and Hoffenheim keeping the side that beat Leverkusen, minus one important piece.

Key Factors

Prass is out, suspended after he was sent off for removing his shirt while celebrating his goal against Leverkusen, and his running on the left is part of how Hoffenheim press and break. They are also without centre-back Albian Hajdari, who has a foot injury.

Werder's injury list is longer, with Jens Stage, Senne Lynen and Skelly Alvero all out in midfield and Felix Agu and Moussa N'Diaye out at full-back, but the side has stopped changing because of it. The eleven that won at Mainz has a settled look, and the service into Füllkrug is why it works. Grüll has set up 4 goals, the most assists in the league, so Werder create for their striker from the middle and the left at the same time.

The counterpoint is Hoffenheim's ceiling. A team that can score three late goals against Leverkusen can score on anyone, and Werder have conceded in every game this season, 14 goals in seven. If Hoffenheim's front line clicks the way it did on Sunday, Werder will need to win a shootout rather than manage a game. But Hoffenheim have won once in three away games and conceded 7 goals in those three, and shootouts at the Weserstadion have been going Werder's way all autumn.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.