Utah vs Cincinnati Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9
Utah arrives at Nippert Stadium unbeaten and ranked No. 6 in the AP Top 25, but Cincinnati just beat Texas Tech at home behind 173 rushing yards from Cole Tabb, and the Bearcats run for 234.6 yards per game.
The Matchup
Cincinnati can run the ball on anyone, and that is the test Utah has not faced in a true road spot like this. The Bearcats average 234.6 rushing yards per game at 6.0 yards per carry, and Cole Tabb carried 16 times for 173 yards at 10.8 yards per carry with a 58-yard long in the 37-24 win over Texas Tech last week. Tabb has 621 yards and 9 touchdowns this season.
JC French IV protects the offense around that ground game, with 13 touchdown passes against 2 interceptions this season, and French threw 4 touchdown passes against Texas Tech. Utah, No. 6 in the AP Top 25 at 7-0, leans on Devon Dampier, and Dampier ran 15 times for 150 yards and 2 touchdowns in the win over Houston.
Dampier also threw 2 interceptions in that game and completed passes for 204 yards with no touchdown throws, so Utah's offense ran through its quarterback's legs. A Cincinnati defense that has recorded 18 sacks can spy Dampier and force Utah to win through the air, where the Utes are less comfortable.
Key Factors
Utah's defense allows 14.6 points per game, and that is the honest case against Cincinnati here. If the Utes bottle up Tabb early, French has to throw into a defense that has taken away 8 interceptions, and the Bearcats' 35.4 points per game could shrink fast.
Utah also protects its drives, converting third downs at 52.3 percent, which can starve a home crowd of possessions. Cincinnati's counter is arithmetic and rest. The Bearcats score 35.4 points per game, they protect the ball with only 4 giveaways all season, and they get 6 days of rest at home against 5 days for a Utah team that played on October 25.
Cincinnati has already beaten a ranked-caliber visitor in this building, handling Texas Tech 37-24, and the Bearcats' rushing volume at 6.0 yards per carry is exactly how a home underdog shortens a game and keeps a superior team from separating. Utah wins this game most Saturdays on talent. Covering nearly a touchdown at Nippert against this run game is a different ask.
Cincinnati's ground game at 234.6 yards per game and 6.0 yards per carry can control enough clock at home to keep Utah from separating. Our projection is Cincinnati 27, Utah 31. Take Cincinnati +6.5 at -110.
Game information
| DATE | Saturday (10/31) |
|---|---|
| START TIME | 3:45 PM ET |
| HOW TO WATCH | ESPN |
| VENUE | Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati |
| SPREAD | Utah -6.5 |
| TOTAL | 57.5 |
| MONEYLINE | Utah -258 |
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