Virginia vs Wake Forest Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9

Wake Forest is ranked No. 14 in the AP Top 25 and scores 37.4 points per game, but Virginia keeps dragging opponents into low games, losing 19-16 to Duke and 23-13 at SMU behind a defense allowing 19.6 points per game.

The Matchup

Virginia's defense is the whole argument, and the recent scores show why. The Cavaliers allow 19.6 points per game, and their last two losses came by 10 points at SMU and by 3 points against Duke, games where Virginia's offense struggled and the defense still kept the margin at one or two scores.

Jekail Middlebrook gives Virginia a way to hold the ball, with 513 rushing yards this season, and Middlebrook carried 24 times for 117 yards and a touchdown in the Duke game. Beau Pribula has thrown 13 touchdowns against 2 interceptions this season, so Virginia rarely hands away the short fields that turn a close game into a blowout.

Wake Forest, No. 14 in the AP Top 25, is the explosive side. Gio Lopez has thrown for 1,947 yards with 17 touchdowns and 1 interception, and Lopez completed 16 of 23 passes for 267 yards and 4 touchdowns in his last game, a 41-7 win at California. Wake averages 9.4 yards per pass attempt. Virginia's task is to make Lopez drive the long field all afternoon instead of striking over the top.

Key Factors

The total tells the story the spread ignores. At 49.5 points, this game is priced like a controlled afternoon, and a 14-point margin is a huge share of a controlled afternoon. Wake Forest gets 12 days of rest after last playing on October 18, which helps the Demon Deacons, but Virginia gets 7 days and a defense that travels.

The counterpoint is Wake's ceiling. The Demon Deacons beat Stanford 57-3 and won at California 41-7, and if Lopez connects early the way he did at California, Virginia's offense at 28.2 points per game cannot chase a multi-score deficit, and Pribula throwing more than Virginia wants is how this pick loses.

Wake also protects the ball with only 3 giveaways this season, so Virginia cannot count on gifts. Virginia covers by leaning on Middlebrook, keeping Lopez's explosive plays in front of the defense, and turning this into the kind of 23-16 game the Cavaliers have played all month. Two touchdowns is simply a lot to lay against a defense allowing 19.6 points per game.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.