Southern Miss vs UL Monroe Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9

UL Monroe is 1-6 and still gets a home game against a Southern Miss team allowing 32.4 points per game, one week after the Warhawks went to Troy and won 21-14.

The Matchup

UL Monroe's record says mismatch, but UL Monroe's last game says something else. The Warhawks won 21-14 at Troy, and Aidan Armenta completed 13 of 22 passes for 147 yards with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions in that win. Armenta has thrown 8 touchdowns against 3 interceptions this season, careful numbers for a team that usually plays from behind.

Southern Miss brings the bigger offense on paper, scoring 25.7 points per game with Mario Sanders catching 40 passes for 569 yards and 5 touchdowns, and Sanders caught 6 passes for 77 yards in the win over Louisiana. The problem for Southern Miss is the other side of the ball.

The Golden Eagles allow 32.4 points per game, so UL Monroe does not need a perfect afternoon to score enough at home. Southern Miss quarterback Landry Lyddy completed 21 of 38 passes for only 164 yards at 4.3 yards per attempt in his last game, with no touchdowns, and an offense that stalls like that on the road invites a home underdog to hang around.

Key Factors

Home field and a short number shape this one. UL Monroe is getting 3 points at Malone Stadium in a game with a 53.5 total, which points to trading scores rather than a grind, and a trading-scores game favors the team catching points at home. Southern Miss converts third downs at only 31.5 percent, so drives die and the Warhawks get extra possessions.

The counterpoint is UL Monroe's own defense, which allows 37.3 points per game, the worst number in this matchup. Jamarice Wilder ran 13 times for 154 yards at 11.8 yards per carry in Southern Miss's last game, and if Wilder runs like that again, Southern Miss can score fast enough to make the home crowd irrelevant and beat this pick cleanly.

UL Monroe has also been shut out 24-0 by Louisiana Tech at home this month, so the downside is plain. The Warhawks cover if Armenta plays another clean game, the defense gets the third-down stops Southern Miss's conversion rate offers, and the Troy win turns out to be form rather than a fluke.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.