Vancouver Canucks vs Anaheim Ducks Prediction: Best Bet for Tuesday

Vancouver allows 4.62 goals per game, kills penalties at 64.4 percent, and has won twice in 13 games, with its franchise goaltender on injured reserve after hip surgery. Anaheim is a losing team itself at 5-6-0, which is what makes Tuesday interesting: how bad does a visitor have to be before a mediocre home team becomes a margin play?

The Matchup

Vancouver's season is already a salvage operation. The Canucks are 2-10-1, scoring 2.85 goals per game and allowing 4.62, the worst defensive mark on Tuesday's slate by nearly a full goal. They have lost five straight, to Florida in overtime, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Detroit and Minnesota, and the top of the lineup is not the problem.

Elias Pettersson has 13 points, Brock Boeser has 9, and Jonathan Lekkerimaki has 9. The problem is everything behind them, starting in net, where Kevin Lankinen is 1-7 with a 6.17 goals-against average and an .812 save percentage. Leevi Merilainen has been far better at 3.12 and .912, and Vancouver's chances rise sharply if he starts, but the team in front of either goalie gives up chances in bunches.

Anaheim is a modest team having a modest season, 5-6-0 with 2.91 goals scored and 3.36 allowed. Leo Carlsson leads the Ducks with 13 points on 3 goals and 10 assists, Beckett Sennecke has 6 goals and 9 points, and Jackson LaCombe has 9 points from the blue line. Anaheim snapped a four-game losing streak by beating Philadelphia 5-4 on Saturday. Lukas Dostal is at 3.27 and .880 and Ville Husso at 3.09 and .886, so the Ducks' goaltending is a weakness of its own, just an ordinary one.

Key Factors

The decisive fact is who is not in Vancouver's net. Thatcher Demko is on injured reserve after hip surgery, and without him the Canucks' season has collapsed into the numbers above. A team allowing 4.62 per game with a 64.4 percent penalty kill, the weakest kill on the slate, gives its opponent two separate roads to four goals: even-strength volume and the power play. Anaheim converts at 22.2 percent with the man advantage, good enough to collect on the second road.

Anaheim has its own absences, and they keep this honest. Troy Terry is on long-term injured reserve after hip surgery, removing a top-line winger, and Pavel Mintyukov and Ian Moore are on injured reserve on defense. The Ducks are also 1-3-0 at home, a poor split for a team being asked to win by two.

That is the counterpoint, and it deserves its weight. Laying a puck line with a 5-6-0 team whose goaltenders both sit under .890 is how bankrolls leak. Vancouver's top line can keep any single game close, and if Merilainen starts and plays to his .912, the Canucks have the better goaltender in the game and a real chance to win it outright. The case for the margin is that Vancouver's floor is lower than any team Anaheim will face this month, and floors, not ceilings, are what puck lines cash against.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.