Vancouver Canucks vs Winnipeg Jets Prediction: Best Bet for Thursday

Somebody has to win the strangest game on the slate: two teams with losing records, negative differentials, and injury lists that explain most of it. Vancouver allows four and a half goals a night, though, and that is a problem no amount of shared misery covers up.

The Matchup

Winnipeg is 5-8-3, scoring 2.44 goals per game and allowing 3.62, a -1.18 differential that reflects a team missing its best defenseman and leaking at the other end. Kyle Connor has been the exception, with 13 goals and 17 points, and Mark Scheifele has 12 assists. The Jets have lost four of their last five, and nothing in their season says contender. That is not the bar in this game.

Vancouver is 3-13-1, the worst record on the slate, scoring 3.00 per game and allowing 4.53, a -1.53 differential. Elias Pettersson leads the Canucks with 14 assists and 18 points, and Jonathan Lekkerimaki has 6 goals. The Canucks can score. They simply cannot keep anyone else from scoring more, and they have won once in their last five.

Both teams are missing the goaltender or defenseman who would normally paper over the cracks. What is left is a comparison of the cracks themselves.

Key Factors

Vancouver's defensive numbers are the worst in this game in every category. The Canucks allow 4.53 goals per game and kill just 63.2 percent of their penalties, and their crease explains plenty of it: Thatcher Demko is on injured reserve with a hip injury, Leevi Merilainen sits at 3.31 and .897, and Kevin Lankinen is at 6.03 and .808. Winnipeg's Stuart Skinner, at 3.41 and .882, is no star turn, but he is facing the attack that has to do less work to score.

Winnipeg's own absences are real. Josh Morrissey is on injured reserve with a wrist injury, and Vladislav Namestnikov and Nick Bjugstad are on injured reserve with him. Vancouver lists Filip Chytil on injured reserve and Tom Willander day-to-day with a lower body injury.

Special teams cut both ways, since Vancouver's power play converts 21.8 percent against a weak Winnipeg kill of 68.8 percent. The underdog case is Pettersson and that power play against a Jets team in poor form. It fails because Vancouver has to survive its own end first, and at 4.53 allowed per game, it has not survived it against anyone.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.