Calgary Flames vs Seattle Kraken Prediction: Best Bet for Wednesday

Seattle scores 3.57 goals per game and allows 3.71, which makes almost every Kraken game a trade of chances, while Calgary converts 30.6 percent on its power play. Something has to bend in Seattle, either the Flames' ability to finish at even strength or a Kraken penalty kill sitting at 64.1 percent.

The Matchup

Seattle is 8-5-1 and plays the wildest games on the Wednesday slate. The Kraken score 3.57 goals per game and allow 3.71, a -0.14 differential, so Seattle wins by winning the trade, not by shutting anyone down. Chandler Stephenson leads the Kraken with 10 assists and 12 points, and Frederick Gaudreau has 7 goals, production spread across the lineup rather than loaded onto one line, which is why the Kraken are hard to match up against at home with the last change.

Calgary is 7-8-0 and underwater by a full goal per game, scoring 2.53 and allowing 3.53 for a -1.00 differential. Joel Farabee leads the Flames with 5 goals and 15 points, and Matt Coronato has 11 assists, but the even-strength scoring still runs dry for long stretches. Dustin Wolf has taken the heavier crease work at a 3.94 goals-against average and a .862 save percentage, and a team that defends like Calgary does leaves its goaltender exposed to second chances most nights.

Both teams miss real pieces. Jonathan Huberdeau is on injured reserve for Calgary, and Connor Zary is out Wednesday night, so the Flames lose two forwards who could have punished Seattle's loose defense. Seattle lists Jared McCann on injured reserve, which costs the Kraken a finisher, but the Kraken have spread their scoring widely enough to absorb one absence better than Calgary absorbs two.

Key Factors

Calgary's power play is the one place the Flames clearly win this matchup. Calgary converts 30.6 percent, a superb mark, and Seattle kills just 64.1 percent of its penalties, so a Kraken penalty is close to an invitation.

Seattle's own power play converts 22.9 percent against a Calgary kill of 83.0 percent, which is a fair fight. If this game becomes a special-teams contest, Calgary has the better of it, and the Kraken know it. Seattle's job is to keep the game at even strength, where its scoring depth and Calgary's defense decide things.

The favorite case is that even-strength game. Seattle scores a full goal per game more than Calgary, gets the last change at home, and faces a goaltender whose numbers sit at the bottom of this matchup. Philipp Grubauer has been steadier for Seattle at a 3.24 goals-against average and a .886 save percentage, and in a game where both teams will give up chances, the steadier crease matters.

The underdog case is the power play and the chaos that follows it, because Seattle allows enough to lose a game it controls. It fails if the Kraken stay out of the box, since Calgary at even strength does not score enough to win a trade in this building.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.