Nashville Predators vs Colorado Avalanche Prediction: Best Bet for Thursday

Colorado scores four goals a night at altitude, and Nashville has made a habit of dragging games into overtime. The Predators' special teams are genuinely elite, which is exactly the kind of strength that can steal a game the Avalanche otherwise control.

The Matchup

Colorado is 9-6-1, scoring 4.12 goals per game and allowing 3.25, a +0.87 differential, and the Avalanche score in this building the way altitude teams are supposed to. Nathan MacKinnon leads Colorado with 18 assists and 27 points, and Artturi Lehkonen has 12 goals. Colorado has won three of its last five, and its losses have come in games where the scoring dried up entirely, which does not happen often at home.

Nashville is 6-4-5, the five overtime losses telling the story of a team that is rarely out of a game and rarely comfortable in one. The Predators score 3.00 per game and allow 3.00, a 0.00 differential. Filip Forsberg leads Nashville with 19 points, Roman Josi has 15 assists, and Steven Stamkos has 8 goals.

The Predators have also won three of their last five, and they arrive with the best special teams in this game by a wide margin. That is what makes this more interesting than the price suggests.

Key Factors

Nashville's special teams are the strongest underdog argument on the Thursday slate. The Predators convert 30.6 percent on the power play and kill 89.4 percent of their penalties, against a Colorado power play at 21.2 percent and a kill at 76.6 percent. If this game is decided by special teams, Nashville wins it. Colorado's job is to keep the game at even strength, where its 4.12 goals per game against a team allowing 3.00 is the loudest mismatch available.

The crease is close to even, which keeps Nashville live longer than most big underdogs. Juuse Saros has a 2.77 goals-against average and a .908 save percentage, a touch better than Mackenzie Blackwood at 2.80 and .894 for Colorado. Jonathan Marchessault is day-to-day with a lower body injury for Nashville.

Keep an eye on whether Marchessault plays before placing a bet, because the Predators need every finisher they have at altitude. Josh Manson is out with an ankle injury for Colorado. The underdog case is Saros, the special teams sweep, and Nashville's overtime habit. It fails on volume: the Avalanche generate too many even-strength chances for a road team to survive on special teams alone.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.