Vegas Golden Knights vs Buffalo Sabres Prediction: Best Bet for Sunday

Vegas converts 27.8 percent of its power plays and Buffalo kills 69.6 percent of its penalties, and that single collision explains most of what the market expects on Sunday afternoon. The Sabres have taken points in eight of their last ten games anyway, which is what makes this more than a mismatch on paper.

The Matchup

Vegas is 11-5-2, scoring 3.28 goals per game and allowing 2.72, a +0.56 differential built on balance rather than one hot line. Jack Eichel leads the Golden Knights with 23 points on 7 goals and 16 assists, and Mark Stone has 10 goals. Vegas is 5-2-2 on the road, which matters here, because the Golden Knights bring their structure with them instead of feeding off a home crowd.

Buffalo is 8-5-3, scoring 3.06 per game and allowing 3.25 for a -0.19 differential, and the Sabres have gone 5-2-3 over their last ten, banking points even when the game gets sloppy. Tage Thompson leads Buffalo with 10 goals and 19 points, and Zach Benson has 13 assists. The Sabres are 4-4-0 at home, an ordinary split that hides how different the games look: Buffalo scores enough to hang around, then gives the game back in the stretches that decide it.

Key Factors

The power play against the penalty kill is the loudest mismatch on the Sunday slate. Vegas converts 27.8 percent with the extra man. Buffalo kills 69.6 percent of its penalties. One Vegas power play goal is close to a scheduled event in this matchup, and Buffalo's own power play, at 15.1 percent against a Vegas kill of 75.0 percent, cannot answer in kind. The Sabres have to win this game at even strength, where Vegas allows 2.72 a night.

Buffalo's net does not rescue the kill. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has a 3.27 goals-against average and a .878 save percentage, and Colten Ellis is steadier at 2.92 and .891. Carter Hart has a 2.49 goals-against average and a .900 save percentage for Vegas, with Adin Hill at 2.73 and .895 behind him.

Buffalo is missing Alex Lyon, who is out today on injured reserve with a left shoulder injury, and Konsta Helenius, who is out with an upper body injury. Justin Danforth and Matt Grzelcyk are both on injured reserve with return dates of November 8, so either could be a late addition. Vegas lists only Parker Wotherspoon on injured reserve, also with a return date of November 8.

The Buffalo case is Thompson, the last-ten points run, and a Vegas team playing its second road game in a short stretch at a near pick'em price. It fails because the Sabres' problem in this game is not effort or form. It is a 69.6 percent kill standing in front of a 27.8 percent power play, with the weaker goaltending behind it. Buffalo needs a clean, low-penalty afternoon to win, and nothing about the Sabres' season says they play many of those.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.