Buffalo Sabres vs Chicago Blackhawks Prediction: Best Bet for Thursday

Chicago allows 4.22 goals per game and has lost five straight, and Buffalo arrives at United Center with a 4-1-3 road record built on finishing other teams' mistakes. Thursday asks how long the Blackhawks can keep a game like this close.

The Matchup

Buffalo is 8-6-3, scoring 2.94 goals per game and allowing 3.29, a -0.35 differential from a team whose record is better than its defending. The Sabres are 4-1-3 on the road, one regulation road loss all season, because their attack travels: Tage Thompson leads Buffalo with 10 goals and 19 points, and Zach Benson has 13 assists, and that pair turns broken plays into goals against teams that give the puck back. Buffalo won the first meeting 4-3 on October 3, and the rematch comes with the Sabres in the steadier form of the two by a wide margin.

Chicago is 4-13-1, scoring 2.17 per game and allowing 4.22 for a -2.06 differential, the weakest marks on the Thursday slate at both ends. The Blackhawks have lost five straight, and the losses have a shape: 5-4 in overtime at Boston is the close one, and the rest ran away, including a 9-2 loss at Carolina.

Ivan Kantserov leads Chicago with 9 goals, and Connor Bedard has 14 points on 9 assists, and after those two the scoring nearly stops. Chicago is 4-5-0 at home and winless on the road, so the building is the Blackhawks' only real shelter this season.

Key Factors

This pick is about the margin, so the margin evidence comes first. Chicago allows 4.22 goals a night, more than half a goal worse than any other team on the slate, and allows them in bunches when games tilt: a team that has given up nine in a game this month and five in three others does not lose narrowly when it loses at home to a finishing side. Buffalo's route to two goals is the normal one: pressure a thin defense, build a lead, and let a chasing Chicago team open up late, with an empty net waiting at the end of a game the Blackhawks have to gamble on.

The supporting numbers all lean the same way. Chicago converts just 9.8 percent on its power play, the weakest mark on the slate, so the Blackhawks cannot punish Buffalo's 71.2 percent penalty kill the way a normal home team would. Buffalo converts 14.3 percent against a Chicago kill of 78.6 percent, a fair fight that still favors the team with Thompson on it.

In net, Spencer Knight is at a 3.66 goals-against average and a .881 save percentage in 14 games as Chicago's only listed goaltender, while Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is at 3.27 and .878 and Colten Ellis at 3.09 and .884 for Buffalo. Neither crease is a strength. Chicago's is the one facing the better attack.

Chicago lists Patrick Kane on injured reserve with an upper body injury and Bowen Byram on injured reserve with an upper body injury in the Blackhawks' listing. Buffalo is missing Alex Lyon, who is on injured reserve with a shoulder injury, Justin Danforth and Matt Grzelcyk, both on injured reserve, and Konsta Helenius, who is out with an upper body injury.

The Chicago case is Bedard at home and Buffalo's own loose defending, because the Sabres allow 3.29 a night and keep underdogs in games. It fails on the Blackhawks' season: the slate's thinnest attack, its leakiest defense, a five-game losing run, and a power play that cannot cash the chances Buffalo's kill will offer. Beating the puck line needs Chicago to play its cleanest game in weeks.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.