Wagner Seahawks vs Boston College Eagles Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Boston College and Wagner meet for the first time ever at Conte Forum, and both rosters are brand new. The Eagles start over under first-year head coach Luke Murray with 13 new players, and Wagner arrives with 14 newcomers of its own after a 14-17 season in the Northeast Conference.

The Matchup

Boston College is a 17.5-point favorite over Wagner at Conte Forum in Chestnut Hill on Tuesday night, with a total of 147.5, on ACCNX. It is the first meeting ever between the two programs and the season opener for both. Boston College finished 11-20 last season, scoring 67.4 points per game and allowing 70.7. Wagner finished 14-17, scoring 71.3 and allowing 71.7. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now. Boston College has 13 new players, and Wagner has 14 newcomers of its own.

This is also a coaching debut. Luke Murray makes his regular-season debut as a college head coach after five seasons as an assistant at UConn, and he spent one season early in his career as an assistant at Wagner. His best player is Money Williams, a transfer from Montana who averaged 20.6 points, 4.7 assists and 4.3 rebounds last season and was the Big Sky Tournament MVP.

Luke Hunger, who averaged 8.4 points and 5.1 rebounds at George Washington, scored a game-high 22 points in the exhibition win over MIT. Boston College will be without Jacob Furphy tonight. The guard sprained his MCL in that MIT exhibition and is expected to miss two to six weeks. No Wagner player carries an injury report into the game.

Wagner's exhibition was against a lower-division opponent, the College of Staten Island, and the numbers should be read that way. Still, the shape was encouraging. Tajae Jones, a transfer from Siena, scored a game-high 20 points in the 91-65 win. Cam Estevez scored 17 points with five three-pointers, and Taj Bryant added 16. Estevez has shot 38 percent from three across 82 career games at Fairfield and Rhode Island, which is a skill that does not depend on the opponent.

Key Factors

The strangest number in this game is the one from last season. Wagner, a Northeast Conference team, was outscored by 0.4 points a game. Boston College, an ACC team, was outscored by 3.3 points a game and went 4-14 in its league. Conferences and schedules are not equal, and nobody should pretend they are, but a favorite that was a negative team a year ago has to show it has changed before it earns a number like this in its first game with a new coach and a new roster.

Murray has been open about the thin spot, too. He has said Boston College is lacking size at center, and that he is comfortable with only seven or eight players in the rotation right now.

A short rotation with a foul-prone frontcourt is a hard way to build and hold a big lead, because one whistle-heavy stretch sends the favorite to the end of a bench it does not trust yet. Wagner was picked fifth in the NEC preseason poll, which is a modest expectation, but the Seahawks open with three straight road games and a roster built to play them.

The counterpoint is Williams. He is the best player in this game by a wide margin, a 20-point scorer who creates for others, and if he controls the night the way he controlled the Big Sky tournament, Boston College can score in bunches that Wagner cannot answer.

The Eagles are also at home, with ACC size and athleticism at every spot. Wagner's exhibition scoring came against a lower-division team, and its first real test can look very different from its last one. The pick needs Wagner's steadiness to show up early, not after the game has already tilted.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.