Western Kentucky Lady Toppers vs Vanderbilt Commodores Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

No. 8 Vanderbilt has won its first three games by 59, 58 and 52 points, and Western Kentucky arrives at Memorial Gymnasium 2-0 with two days of rest. The Commodores are favored by 45.5, and they have covered numbers like this all month.

The Matchup

Vanderbilt has spent the first week running teams off the floor at Memorial Gymnasium. The Commodores are 3-0, beating Lipscomb 112-53, Queens 100-42 and Morehead State 102-50 on Monday night, and they have scored 104.7 points per game while allowing 48.3. Mikayla Blakes has scored 27, 24 and 25 points, and Aubrey Galvan handed out 11 assists against Lipscomb and 10 more against Morehead State. Blakes and Galvan carry no injury designations for Wednesday.

Western Kentucky is 2-0 with a split personality in the results: a 61-50 grind over Chattanooga and a 94-43 rout of Christian Brothers, scoring 77.5 points per game while allowing 46.5. Jamila Ray scored 14 points against Chattanooga and 25 against Christian Brothers, and Josie Gilvin opened with 10 points and 10 rebounds against Chattanooga before adding 11 points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists on Sunday. Ray and Gilvin carry no injury designations for Wednesday.

Last season is where the two programs trade places in the story. Vanderbilt went 29-5, scoring 84.3 points per game and allowing 65.2, and this season's team has been better than that one so far. Western Kentucky went 8-21, scoring 57.4 and allowing 64.9, and the market is pricing that team.

This season's Lady Toppers have allowed 50 and 43 points, and Ray's first week, 39 points across two games, is the kind of scoring last season's 8-21 team rarely found. Two games against lighter competition do not prove a turnaround, but they are not nothing, either.

Key Factors

Vanderbilt's pressure is the first problem, and it has been everybody's problem. The Commodores forced 31 turnovers against Lipscomb, 36 against Queens and 27 against Morehead State, and they turn those mistakes into points before a defense can breathe. Western Kentucky's counter is ball security: the Lady Toppers turned it over only 12 times against Chattanooga and 15 against Christian Brothers, and a team that values the ball does not feed the runouts that stretch a Vanderbilt margin.

The schedule helps the visitor, too. Vanderbilt played Monday night and travels to Iowa on Sunday, while Western Kentucky has been idle since Sunday with two full days to prepare for this one game. A rested underdog with a real first option is a different fourth-quarter opponent than a team playing out the string, and the Lady Toppers need Ray and Gilvin on the floor late for the rest edge to matter.

The honest case for Vanderbilt is that the Commodores have already covered this number three times, winning by 59, 58 and 52, and Blakes played 30 minutes on Monday in a game that was over by halftime, which says the starters will not be waved off early. Western Kentucky's two wins also came against a lighter class of opponent than anything in the SEC. The pick rests on Ray and Gilvin being a real step up from the visitors Vanderbilt has buried so far, and on a rested team making the Commodores work for the margin.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.