Winnipeg Jets vs Dallas Stars Prediction: Best Bet for Thursday
Dallas allows 2.29 goals per game and kills 89.7 percent of its penalties, and Winnipeg scores 2.79 a night with Kyle Connor doing most of the finishing. Thursday in Dallas is a test of whether one scorer can crack that combination.
The Matchup
Dallas is 10-5-2, scoring 2.82 goals per game and allowing 2.29, a +0.53 differential built entirely on the defensive end. The Stars are 6-4-0 at home, and their home games run low and tight because Dallas gives almost nothing away: 2.29 allowed a night with the league's best penalty kill in this matchup at 89.7 percent. Mikko Rantanen leads Dallas with 9 goals and 21 points, and Wyatt Johnston has 13 assists, and that pair does its work inside a structure that rarely asks them to chase a game.
Winnipeg is 8-8-3, scoring 2.79 per game and allowing 3.42 for a -0.63 differential, and the Jets are 3-4-2 on the road. Kyle Connor is the attack, with 15 goals and 21 points, and Mark Scheifele has 15 assists feeding him. Winnipeg's season turns on whether Connor's line wins its matchup, because the scoring behind it is thin and the defensive end leaks: 3.42 allowed a night is a hard way to travel, and Dallas won the first meeting 3-2 in overtime on October 23.
Key Factors
The special teams gap is the widest on the Thursday slate, and it runs one way. Dallas converts 27.5 percent on the power play and kills 89.7 percent of its penalties. Winnipeg converts 23.7 percent, a respectable mark that runs into the best kill in the game, and kills just 73.7 percent, so the Jets' own penalty trouble feeds the Stars' power play. Winnipeg has to win this game five on five and stay out of the box, and a team that allows 3.42 a night rarely manages both for sixty minutes.
The crease tells the same story. Jake Oettinger is at a 1.99 goals-against average and a .906 save percentage in 13 games for Dallas, with three shutouts, and Casey DeSmith is at 2.42 and .909 behind him. Winnipeg lists Stuart Skinner at 3.26 and .883 in 13 games and Nico Daws at 2.72 and .889 in seven, a full class below Oettinger's season.
Dallas is missing a major piece on the back end: Miro Heiskanen is out tonight with an upper body injury. Matt Duchene is on injured reserve with an abdominal injury for Dallas. Winnipeg is missing Vladislav Namestnikov, who is on injured reserve with an undisclosed injury, and Nick Bjugstad, who is on injured reserve after pectoral surgery.
The Winnipeg case is Connor, who can win a game in three shifts, and a Dallas team missing Heiskanen in front of its own net. It fails on the structure: the Jets score 2.79 a night, allow 3.42, and face the slate's best kill and its steadiest goaltending in the same game. Connor needs a career night. Dallas needs its normal one.
Dallas defends its net and kills penalties at a level Winnipeg has not solved, and Jake Oettinger closes the door the Stars' structure leaves open. Take the Dallas Stars moneyline at -185.
Game Information
| Date | Thursday (11/12) |
|---|---|
| Start Time | 7:00 PM CT |
| How to Watch | NHL |
| Venue | American Airlines Center |
| Total | 5.5 |
| Moneyline | Dallas Stars -185 |
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Player Props for This Game
3 props- Jason Robertson Shots on GoalOver 2.5 -156
- Wyatt Johnston AssistsOver 0.5 +100
- Jake Oettinger SavesUnder 21.5 +100
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