New Jersey Devils vs Winnipeg Jets Prediction: Best Bet for Tuesday

Winnipeg allows 3.50 goals per game and scores 2.72, a combination that turns one-goal deficits into chases the Jets rarely finish. New Jersey arrives at 13-5-0 with Jack Hughes on 25 points, and Tuesday asks whether a Winnipeg team leaking at both ends can keep a game like this close at all.

The Matchup

New Jersey is 13-5-0, scoring 3.61 goals per game and allowing 2.83, a +0.78 differential from a team that settles its games in regulation: the Devils have no overtime losses, because their games rarely stay undecided that long. Jack Hughes leads New Jersey with 25 points on 9 goals and 16 assists, and he drives an attack that scores in every building, with a 5-3-0 road record behind it. The Devils are not a one-line team, but Hughes is the player who turns a controlled game into a two-goal game in a single shift.

Winnipeg is 7-8-3, scoring 2.72 per game and allowing 3.50 for a -0.78 differential, and the Jets' problem is that both ends fail at once. Kyle Connor leads Winnipeg with 19 points on 13 goals, and Mark Scheifele has 14 assists, so the top of the lineup still produces. Below it, the Jets give back more than they make: 3.50 allowed is the worst mark on the Tuesday slate, and a 4-4-1 home record says the Canada Life Centre crowd has not been able to cover for it.

Key Factors

This pick is about the margin, so the margin evidence comes first. Winnipeg's average game is a -0.78, and that average hides the shape of the Jets' losses: a team scoring 2.72 while allowing 3.50 does not lose many squeakers, because once it falls behind it has to open up, and opening up against Hughes and a 3.61-goal attack is how one goal becomes two. New Jersey does not need a shootout. It needs its normal game, two even-strength pushes and a Jets team chasing late with an empty net waiting at the end.

The counterweight is special teams, and it is a genuine one. New Jersey kills only 67.6 percent of its penalties, the weakest kill on the slate, and Winnipeg converts 21.8 percent on the power play with Connor and Scheifele running it. If the Jets draw penalties and score on them, the margin case dies quickly.

New Jersey converts 19.3 percent against a Winnipeg kill of 71.7 percent, so the Devils have their own route with the extra man. In the crease, Jake Allen is at 3.20 and .881 for New Jersey, and Stuart Skinner is at 3.26 and .883 for Winnipeg, with Nico Daws at 2.86 and .886. Neither side owns a goaltending edge big enough to change the shape of the game.

Winnipeg is missing its best defenseman: Josh Morrissey is out on injured reserve with a wrist injury. Vladislav Namestnikov is out on injured reserve, and Nick Bjugstad is out on injured reserve after pectoral surgery.

New Jersey lists Anthony Mantha as out with a neck injury and Seamus Casey as out on injured reserve with a knee injury. The Jets' case is the power play against that 67.6 percent kill, plus home ice. It is not enough against a team that outscores and out-defends them by three-quarters of a goal each, with their top defenseman watching.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.