Market Disagreement Index: NFL, October 22-26, 2026.
For every NFL game we preview this week: the sportsbook moneyline implied probability for the favorite, the Kalshi prediction-market price for the same team, and our published spread pick. Kalshi prices pulled October 21, 2026 at 7:31 AM CT (last trade price, series KXNFLGAME). Sportsbook lines are the lines at time of writing on each game preview. This page updates in place each week.
01The 3 biggest disagreements
1. 49ers vs Falcons (4.6 points). The sportsbook moneyline implies 68.6% for 49ers, while Kalshi last traded at 64.0%. That is the largest gap on this slate, and our model pick is 49ers -3.5, with the favorite. Read the full preview for the matchup case behind the pick.
2. Broncos vs Cardinals (3.4 points). The sportsbook moneyline implies 70.4% for Broncos, while Kalshi last traded at 67.0%. That is a top-three gap on this slate, and our model pick backs the underdog against the spread. Read the full preview for the matchup case behind the pick.
3. Rams vs Raiders (3.2 points). The sportsbook moneyline implies 69.2% for Rams, while Kalshi last traded at 66.0%. That is a top-three gap on this slate, and our model pick backs the underdog against the spread. Read the full preview for the matchup case behind the pick.
No game on this slate reaches the 5.0-point flag threshold between the sportsbook and Kalshi. The largest gap is 4.6 points, so the flag column below is empty this week by the rule, not by omission.
02The full board
| GAME | FAVORITE | SPORTSBOOK IMPLIED | KALSHI | GAP (PTS) | OUR PICK | FLAG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots vs Bears | Bears | 59.7% | 60.0% | 0.3 | Bears -3 | - |
| Steelers vs Saints | Steelers | 64.9% | 63.0% | 1.9 | Saints +3.5 | - |
| 49ers vs Falcons | 49ers | 68.6% | 64.0% | 4.6 | 49ers -3.5 | - |
| Browns vs Titans | Browns | 55.6% | 54.0% | 1.6 | Titans +1.5 | - |
| Colts vs Vikings | Vikings | 73.5% | 72.0% | 1.5 | Vikings -6.5 | - |
| Dolphins vs Jets | Jets | 69.7% | 68.0% | 1.7 | Jets -4.5 | - |
| Buccaneers vs Panthers | Panthers | 64.9% | 62.0% | 2.9 | Panthers -3.5 | - |
| Bengals vs Ravens | Ravens | 59.7% | 58.0% | 1.7 | Bengals +3 | - |
| Giants vs Texans | Texans | 83.3% | 81.0% | 2.3 | Giants +10 | - |
| Broncos vs Cardinals | Broncos | 70.4% | 67.0% | 3.4 | Cardinals +4.5 | - |
| Packers vs Lions | Lions | 62.4% | 61.0% | 1.4 | Lions -3 | - |
| Rams vs Raiders | Rams | 69.2% | 66.0% | 3.2 | Raiders +4.5 | - |
| Chiefs vs Seahawks | Seahawks | 57.4% | 57.0% | 0.4 | Chiefs +2.5 | - |
| Cowboys vs Eagles | Cowboys | 68.6% | 66.0% | 2.6 | Eagles +4.5 | - |
Gap is the absolute difference between the two probability columns, in percentage points. Our pick is the published spread pick at -110 from each game preview, linked from the game name.
03Where our model disagrees
The probability columns agree closely this week. Our spread picks are where the disagreement sits: the model takes the underdog against the spread in 8 of the 14 games (Saints +3.5, Titans +1.5, Bengals +3, Giants +10, Cardinals +4.5, Raiders +4.5, Chiefs +2.5, Eagles +4.5). A spread pick on an underdog is not a call that the underdog wins outright; it is a call that the favorite wins by less than the market number, which is why it can sit next to a high implied win probability for the favorite without contradicting it. The clearest case is Giants +10: Houston is the heaviest favorite on the slate at 83.3% implied, and the pick still takes the points.
04How to read this page
Sportsbook implied probability comes from the favorite moneyline only: at -148, the formula is 148 / (148 + 100), or 59.7%. It includes the book margin, so it runs slightly high. Kalshi prices are last trade prices on the game winner market, stated as the favorite yes price; the two sides of a Kalshi market do not have to sum to 100%. A flag marks any game where the two columns differ by 5.0 or more percentage points, the level where the difference is larger than normal book margin and market noise.
Past disagreement is not a promise about the next slate. Prices move, and this page is a snapshot with its pull time printed at the top, not a live feed.