Alabama A&M Bulldogs vs DePaul Blue Demons Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

Alabama A&M won its two home games by 33 and 56 points, and Devin Brown is pulling down 10.5 rebounds a game. DePaul is unbeaten in Chicago, but the Blue Demons were a .500 team last season and 22.5 is a steep price.

The Matchup

Alabama A&M visits DePaul on Monday evening at Wintrust Arena in Chicago, on truTV, with DePaul a 22.5-point favorite, a total of 141.5, and the Blue Demons priced at -8,000 on the moneyline against Alabama A&M at +2,200. Both teams are 2-0. Alabama A&M plays on the road for the first time this season, and DePaul plays at home for the third straight game.

Alabama A&M's two wins need their context stated plainly, because the scores are eye-catching and the opponents were not DePaul's level. The Bulldogs beat Oakwood 90-57 and Mississippi U for Women 103-47, both at home, and those games tell you Alabama A&M can run up a score against an overmatched visitor and very little about how it handles a road game in Chicago.

What does carry over is the shape of the team: Jalen Carruth leads Alabama A&M at 16.0 points a game, Devin Brown leads the Bulldogs at 10.5 rebounds a game, and Sami Pissis leads them at 5.0 assists a game. Brown's rebounding is the most transferable piece, because size and effort on the glass travel better than shooting does.

DePaul beat West Georgia 75-58 and South Florida 82-80, both at home. Magoon Gwath leads the Blue Demons at 13.0 points a game, Fabian Flores leads them at 6.5 rebounds a game, and Noah Meeusen leads them at 7.5 assists a game. Meeusen's playmaking has driven DePaul's 78.5 points a game so far, and the South Florida win, close as it was, is the best result either team in this game owns.

Last season, neither team was anything like a 22.5-point favorite over a decent opponent. DePaul went 16-16, scored 70.3 points a game, and allowed 69.6. Alabama A&M went 18-15, scored 72.1 points a game, and allowed 72.5, winning more games than DePaul did. That is the tension in this spread: the market is pricing the step up in class and the building, not anything these two teams did last season or, the South Florida game aside, have done this season.

Key Factors

Brown on the glass is where Alabama A&M's cover starts. At 10.5 rebounds a game against Flores at 6.5 for DePaul, the Bulldogs have the one clear category leader advantage in this game, and extra possessions are the surest way for a big underdog to stay attached. Carruth at 16.0 points a game and Pissis at 5.0 assists a game give Alabama A&M enough structure to score in the half court, which matters in a game with a total of 141.5 that projects as slower than the other big spreads on Monday's slate.

DePaul's own numbers argue against a rout. The Blue Demons scored 70.3 points a game last season, they have one comfortable win and one two-point win this season, and Gwath at 13.0 points a game is a leader by committee situation rather than a star who can hang 30 on an overmatched team. Covering 22.5 with that profile requires forty minutes of focus from a team that has not shown it yet this season. Neither team has a player listed out for this game in the ESPN injury report.

The honest counterpoint is the class jump, and it is a serious one. Alabama A&M has not played anybody close to DePaul's level, its two wins came at home against badly overmatched visitors, and Wintrust Arena on a Monday night is a completely different test from anything the Bulldogs have faced.

If DePaul's pressure turns Pissis over early and the crowd gets into it, the gap in athleticism can show up all at once and this number can look small by halftime. The bet is narrower than the blowout scores suggest: an Alabama A&M team with a real rebounder and an 18-win season behind it keeps a .500-caliber favorite from running the margin to 23.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.