Purdue vs Penn State Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9
Two 3-4 teams come off long rests at Beaver Stadium, and the gap is on defense. Purdue scores enough to stay loud, while Penn State has spent the season making opponents work for every point.
The Matchup
Penn State allows 18.9 points per game, and Purdue allows 32.3 points per game. That 13.4-point difference shapes how this game can be played. Purdue has to chase because Purdue cannot rely on stops, and Penn State can stay patient because Penn State can trust a defense that has taken the ball away 9 times.
Rocco Becht gives Penn State a steady way to use that patience. Becht has thrown for 1,664 yards and 12 touchdowns this season, and Becht went 28 of 44 for 267 yards in his most recent game. Chase Sowell turns those throws into chain-moving plays. Sowell caught 11 passes for 151 yards and a touchdown in that same game, and Sowell has 510 yards on the season.
Purdue answers with real passing volume. Ryan Browne has thrown for 1,822 yards, Purdue averages 280.7 passing yards per game, and Asaad Waseem caught 9 passes for 116 yards in Purdue's most recent game. Purdue will make throws. The question is whether Purdue can make them for four quarters without the defense giving the yardage straight back.
Key Factors
Third down points the other way, and Penn State has to fix that part to pull away. Purdue converts 43.3 percent on third down, and Penn State converts only 35.8 percent. If Browne and Waseem keep Purdue on schedule, Purdue can shorten the game and keep the margin tight even while losing the defensive battle. Carson Hansen helps Penn State avoid that trap when Hansen finishes drives.
Hansen carried 15 times for 51 yards and a touchdown in Penn State's most recent game, and Hansen has 4 rushing touchdowns this season on a team that has 11 rushing touchdowns in all. The rest edge is almost even, with Purdue at 14 days and Penn State at 13 days, so neither side gets a clear recovery advantage.
Penn State lost its last three games by 8 points, 3 points and 8 points in the two most recent of those results, which shows a team that has stayed close without finishing. What beats Penn State here is clean Purdue passing. Browne threw 2 interceptions in his most recent game, and if Browne avoids that mistake and Waseem repeats a 100-yard day, Purdue can trade scores long enough to stay inside the number.
Editorial pick: Penn State -7.5. Penn State's defense allows 18.9 points per game against a Purdue defense allowing 32.3, and Becht to Sowell gives Penn State the reliable passing connection to turn stops into separation. Purdue needs Browne to play clean for four quarters to spoil it, and Browne threw 2 interceptions last time out. Take Penn State -7.5 at -110.
Game information
| DATE | Saturday (10/31) |
|---|---|
| START TIME | 4:15 PM ET |
| HOW TO WATCH | BTN |
| VENUE | Beaver Stadium, University Park |
| SPREAD | Penn State -7.5 |
| TOTAL | 53.5 |
| MONEYLINE | Penn State -305 |
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