Baskonia vs Fenerbahce Istanbul Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Round 10

Fenerbahce come home after two straight road defeats have taken the shine off a fast start, and the team waiting for them in Istanbul is the one side in this league that defends worse than anyone else. Baskonia sit bottom at 1-8, short handed in the frontcourt, and still able to score enough to make any favourite nervous for a while.

The Matchup

Fenerbahce Istanbul built their 6-3 start on defense, and the gap at that end is not close. They allow 76.6 points per game, while Baskonia allow 94.1 points per game, the worst mark in the competition. That gap shapes everything about Thursday night. Baskonia score freely enough at 83.1 points per game, but they have to do it on the road, with a shortened frontcourt, against a home team that would rather win a grind than a shootout.

The hosts need this one more than the table suggests. Fenerbahce lost at Valencia and at Real Madrid last week, scoring 78 and then 76 points, and a team that lives on control cannot afford a third flat night. Home has been kinder to them. They beat Zalgiris Kaunas 99-80 and Partizan Belgrade 74-65 at the Ulker Sports and Event Hall, and both wins came the same way, by strangling the game early and making the visitor chase it.

Wade Baldwin IV is active tonight. He played in both defeats last week, scoring 19 points at Valencia, and he runs this offense at 11.7 points and 4.9 assists per game. Shavon Shields gives him a second creator on the wing.

Shields averages 11.9 points and 5.2 rebounds per game, scored 18 points with 8 rebounds at Valencia, and scored 17 points with 7 rebounds in the win at Olympiacos. Against a defense this loose, Fenerbahce do not need either man to be spectacular. They need them to keep attacking tired closeouts for 40 minutes.

Key Factors

Baskonia arrive short where they can least afford it. Tadas Sedekerskis is out tonight. He has a right thigh muscle injury, last played in Round 7, and is still working through an individual rehabilitation programme. Rodions Kurucs is out tonight as well.

He also last played in Round 7, with an undisclosed problem, and he is on the same individual programme. Chris Duarte is cleared to play tonight after rejoining team practices, but he last played in Round 6, and a month of rust is a lot to carry into this building.

The visitors are not helpless, and Kenneth Faried is the main reason. Faried scored 17 points with 8 rebounds at ASVEL last Friday, and A.J. Lawson, who leads Baskonia at 12.9 points per game, scored 17 points against Real Madrid. If Lawson gets hot early and Faried turns misses into second chances, Baskonia can score their way into the fourth quarter. That is the honest route back into this game, and Fenerbahce have to close it off on the glass.

Fenerbahce won both meetings with Baskonia last season, 108-93 in Vitoria-Gasteiz and 84-71 in Istanbul, and rest is even after both teams played domestic games at the weekend. Baskonia are still looking for a first EuroLeague win under Velimir Perasovic, who returned to their bench last month, and a defense that has travelled this badly is unlikely to find one here. New signing Dwight Powell could debut for Fenerbahce after being registered this week, which only deepens a frontcourt Baskonia are struggling to staff.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.