Valencia Basket vs Olimpia Milano Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Round 10

The league's loudest offense walks into a building that has forgotten how to win on Thursday night. Valencia have scored more freely than anyone in Europe this season, and Milano have lost seven straight, twice in Athens by single figures that flattered nobody. Something has to give between a team that cannot stop scoring and a team that cannot start.

The Matchup

Valencia score like nobody else in this competition, and the table is blunt about it. They average 96.3 points per game, the highest mark in the league, and they have done it against good teams, beating Fenerbahce 86-78 and scoring 104 at Paris. Milano sit at the other end of the story at 1-8, with seven straight defeats, and their problem is not effort. They lost 80-75 at Panathinaikos and 84-78 at Olympiacos in the last two rounds, close enough to believe, far enough to keep losing.

The engine is T.J. Shorts, and Milano have nobody who guards him comfortably. Shorts was named the EuroLeague MVP for October after averaging 17.1 points and 5.7 assists through nine games, and his last two big nights tell the story: 25 points with 9 assists at Paris, then 23 points against Fenerbahce. He is small, quick, and patient, and he bends a defense until a shooter opens up.

Armoni Brooks has become that shooter. Brooks scored 26 points with five three-pointers at Barcelona on Friday, his season high, and added 16 against Fenerbahce. There is a neat cruelty in that for Milano: Brooks spent the last two seasons in their shirt, and he returns to this building as the man their defense has to chase.

Key Factors

Valencia may not be whole, and the doubt sits on their biggest name. Nikola Mirotic is questionable to play on Thursday. He felt a sharp pain in his thigh against Fenerbahce, imaging confirmed a muscle injury to the adductor in his left leg, and Valencia said he would miss the upcoming games with no return date set. He has not played since, sitting out at Barcelona and in the Spanish league at the weekend, and nobody at Valencia has confirmed him back for Milan.

Keep an eye on whether Nikola Mirotic plays before placing a bet. Nate Reuvers is out with a foot bone injury that has kept him out of the last two rounds. Valencia scored 94 at Barcelona and won 111-79 at Andorra on Sunday without either of them on the floor, because their scoring is spread across Shorts, Brooks and Kameron Taylor rather than built around one forward.

Milano's absences cut closer to the bone. Devin Booker is out with an injury coach Peppe Poeta called quite serious, and it leaves Moses Wright and Ousmane Diop as the only centers on the roster, which is a thin answer to a team that pushes the pace for 40 minutes. Leandro Bolmaro is questionable to play on Thursday.

He strained a muscle late in the win at Cantu on Sunday and was forced off in the fourth quarter, and Milano need his ball handling against Valencia's pressure. Keep an eye on whether Leandro Bolmaro plays before placing a bet. Alec Peters is back, at least: he returned against Olympiacos after missing a round with a left knee contusion.

The recent history of this fixture is the quiet part of the case. Valencia won both meetings last season, 103-100 in this building and 102-96 at home, and Milano's home floor has not protected them from good teams this season either. Milano will compete, because they have competed in Athens twice and lost narrowly twice. Competing is not the same as scoring enough, and 82.0 points per game is not enough against this opponent.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.