FC Bayern Munich vs ASVEL Villeurbanne Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Round 10

ASVEL have turned a rough start into two straight home wins, and the guards did the turning. Bayern Munich arrive in Lyon on Thursday having lost four straight, fresh off a 30-point beating in Belgrade, with a defense that keeps giving games away early. Two teams at the wrong end of the table, one moving, one stuck, and a short home spread between them.

The Matchup

Two teams moving in opposite directions meet in Lyon on Thursday night. ASVEL have won two straight in this competition, both at LDLC Arena, and have climbed to 4-5 after a rough start. Bayern Munich have lost four straight and sit at 2-7, and their last road night was the worst of the season, a 103-73 loss at Crvena Zvezda where the game was gone by halftime, 48-31. The records say this should be close. The last week says it might not be.

The reason ASVEL have turned is the backcourt, and it is suddenly deep. TyTy Washington Jr. scored a career-high 21 points against Baskonia on Friday, with 5 rebounds and 4 assists, and he finished the night without a miss from two-point range.

Patty Mills followed with 20 points and five made three-pointers, after scoring 14 points in the comeback win over Partizan two nights earlier. When those two sit, Tremont Waters keeps attacking. He scored 24 points at Saint-Quentin on Sunday, so ASVEL rarely play a quiet guard minute.

Bayern have a scorer to answer with, and his supporting cast had a miserable night in Belgrade. Duane Washington Jr. is Bayern's top scorer at 15.2 points per game, and he led them again at Zvezda with 16 points. Andreas Obst scored just 3 points in that game, and Rokas Jokubaitis, who scored 17 points with 7 assists against Barcelona in Round 8, finished without a point in Belgrade. Bayern can look like a real offense when all three guards fire together. Lately, they have taken turns disappearing instead.

Key Factors

The number that shapes this pick is Bayern's defense, because it has stopped traveling. Bayern allow 94.4 points per game, the leakiest mark in this matchup by a distance, and they have allowed 100 or more points three times in their last five games.

ASVEL are hardly a wall themselves, allowing 92.3 points per game, but at home they have turned games into scoring contests they are built to win, putting up 82 points against Partizan and 94 against Baskonia in the double round week. A visiting defense this generous is exactly what this guard rotation wants.

Availability is cleaner than the absences first suggest, with one name to watch on the home side. Mathis Dossou-Yovo is out for ASVEL. He has a groin injury and has been sidelined since the start of the season. Myles Cale is questionable to play on Thursday.

He last played in Round 7 and did not feature in the French League this past weekend. Patty Mills is questionable to play on Thursday as well. He scored 20 points against Baskonia on Friday, then missed Sunday's French League game at Saint-Quentin, and no report has explained the absence or listed him as injured for this game.

Keep an eye on whether Patty Mills plays before placing a bet. Bayern's picture cleared on Tuesday, when Kamar Baldwin, MarJon Beauchamp and Justinian Jessup all played in the German League against Braunschweig after none of them featured in Belgrade in Round 9. Baldwin last played a EuroLeague game in Round 7, so his minutes are the open question, not his status.

The setting favors the hosts in one more way. ASVEL stay home for a third straight EuroLeague game at LDLC Arena, while Bayern travel for a second straight round and still have Valencia and Zalgiris to visit on this road run.

The last meeting in France finished 76-74 to ASVEL last December, and the return in Munich finished 93-83 to Bayern in March, so neither side has scared the other off. What has changed since March is the direction of travel. ASVEL arrive with their guards scoring and their building behind them. Bayern arrive still looking for a defense.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.