Buffalo Sabres vs Anaheim Ducks Prediction: Best Bet for Thursday

Buffalo is favored in Anaheim despite a power play converting 9.8 percent, the worst mark in the league, and the market and the season numbers disagree about this game more than any other on the slate. The Ducks score 3.08 goals per game at home, and Thursday settles which version of these two .500-ish teams is real.

The Matchup

This is the one game on the slate where the market and the season disagree, and the disagreement is worth naming plainly. Buffalo is favored on the road, but Anaheim has the better scoring profile: the Ducks score 3.08 goals per game against Buffalo's 2.75, and Anaheim's differential of -0.50 per game is a shade better than Buffalo's -0.58. Leo Carlsson leads Anaheim with 15 points and 11 assists, and Beckett Sennecke has a team-high 7 goals, a young top end that produces in bursts.

Buffalo is 5-4-3 and 2-1-3 on the road, a team that collects points without often deserving all of them. Jack Quinn leads the Sabres with 11 points and a team-high 6 goals, and Owen Power has 9 assists.

The injuries sit heavier on Anaheim's blue line, with Pavel Mintyukov and Ian Moore on injured reserve with lower-body injuries and Troy Terry on injured reserve after hip surgery, while Buffalo is without Jiri Kulich, who is out with a concussion, and goaltender Alex Lyon, who is on injured reserve with an upper-body injury. Justin Danforth is day-to-day for Buffalo with an upper-body injury. Keep an eye on whether Danforth plays before placing a bet.

Key Factors

Special teams are the widest gap in the game, and they favor the home side in both directions. Anaheim converts 23.7 percent of its power plays, and Buffalo converts 9.8 percent, the worst mark in the league, so the Ducks own the only shortcut goal available.

The kills are closer, 77.6 percent for Anaheim and 71.4 percent for Buffalo, which means Buffalo's weak kill meets Anaheim's good power play while Buffalo's power play meets a kill it still has to beat with the league's coldest unit. That trade, over a full game, is worth a goal.

Goaltending is a wash of struggling starters and one sharp backup. Lukas Dostal is at 3.56 and .872 for Anaheim, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is at 3.56 and .866 for Buffalo, and Colten Ellis has been Buffalo's best at 2.28 and .902 in limited work. Anaheim is only 1-3-1 at Honda Center, which is the honest case for the favorite: the Ducks have not defended their own building. But Buffalo allows 3.33 goals per game and rarely scores three, and a road favorite with that profile is a fragile thing on the road.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.