Utah Mammoth vs Pittsburgh Penguins Prediction: Best Bet for Thursday

Utah scores 3.62 goals per game behind a power play converting 34.8 percent, and Pittsburgh has quietly been two different teams, 4-1-0 at home and 1-5-1 on the road. Thursday night in Pittsburgh tests which version of the Penguins the schedule actually produced.

The Matchup

Utah is 8-5-0 and scores 3.62 goals per game, and the scoring comes from everywhere a defense does not want it. Clayton Keller leads the Mammoth with 15 points, Nick Schmaltz has a team-high 7 goals, and Mikhail Sergachev has 12 assists from the blue line. Utah allows 3.31 goals per game, so its games tilt toward trading chances, and with a +0.31 differential per game the Mammoth usually win the trade.

Pittsburgh is 5-6-1 with an even differential, 3.25 goals for and 3.25 against per game, and its split is the story of its season. The Penguins are 4-1-0 at PPG Paints Arena and 1-5-1 on the road, which means the home record is carrying an otherwise break-even team.

Erik Karlsson leads Pittsburgh with 12 points and 11 assists, and Evgeni Malkin has a team-high 6 goals. Malkin is day-to-day with an illness. Keep an eye on whether Malkin plays before placing a bet. Utah is without John Marino, who is out with an upper-body injury, which thins the right side of its defense.

Key Factors

The power play is the loudest mismatch on the slate. Utah converts 34.8 percent of its chances, one of the best marks in the league, and Pittsburgh kills 83.9 percent, a good kill that still has to survive a unit converting like that. The return trip is just as awkward for Pittsburgh: the Penguins convert 20.6 percent, and Utah's penalty kill sits at 67.4 percent, so both teams will get their looks and the game likely turns on which unit cashes first.

Goaltending slightly favors the home side. Arturs Silovs is at 2.87 and .890 for Pittsburgh with two shutouts, while Karel Vejmelka is at 3.13 and .881 for Utah. Neither number scares a shooter, which fits two teams allowing more than three goals a game. Pittsburgh has won its last two, and its home form is a real counter to everything above. Utah is 4-3-0 on the road, though, and a team that scores like this does not need the building to cooperate.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.