Brooklyn Nets vs New York Knicks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

The Knicks are favored by more than two touchdowns in football terms, yet they are 2-4 and have been outscored only barely this season. Brooklyn is bad, but a spread this size asks a slow, half-court favorite to run away from a rival it usually plays tight.

The Matchup

New York is 2-4, and the start has been a grind. The Knicks score 107.0 points per game and allow 107.7, which is the profile of a team playing close games, not blowing anyone out. Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns carry the offense, with Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby on the wings and Josh Hart doing the dirty work between them. New York went 53-29 last season, and the talent says this team will sort itself out. It has not sorted itself out yet.

Brooklyn is 1-5, and there is no dressing that up. The Nets score 108.2 points per game and allow 116.0, and Michael Porter Jr. and Julius Randle are asked to create almost everything. Brooklyn's injury list is short but real. Egor Demin is out with a leg bruise until around November 7, and Tyler Bilodeau is out with a shoulder sprain until around November 6. Mikel Brown Jr. is day-to-day on a rest listing with a return date of November 2.

DraftKings makes New York a 14.5-point home favorite at Madison Square Garden, with the Knicks at -850 on the moneyline and a total of 222.5. Jose Alvarado is listed out for New York with an ankle sprain and a return date of November 2, so his status is a late check rather than a settled absence.

Key Factors

Pace is the whole argument. New York plays deliberate, half-court basketball, walks the ball up, and runs its offense deep into the clock through Brunson and Towns. That style wins games. It does not naturally produce 15-point margins, because there are simply fewer possessions in which to build one. Brooklyn does not need to be good to cover this number. The Nets need the game to stay in the 90-possession range and to make the shots a normal NBA rotation makes.

The rivalry setting matters more than it should on paper. These teams share a city, Brooklyn's players hear about this matchup all week, and a Nets team with nothing to lose tends to play its loosest game of the month at the Garden. Randle, in particular, plays with an edge in this building, and Porter gives Brooklyn one scorer who can keep a quarter close on his own.

The counter is obvious. Brooklyn's defense has given up big runs all season, and if Towns gets his post mismatches and Brunson hunts Brooklyn's guards, the Knicks can be up 20 by halftime. Keep an eye on whether Alvarado plays before placing a bet, since his ball pressure is part of how New York turns defense into separation. But separation is exactly what this Knicks team has not produced yet, and the spread is priced as if it already has.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.