Ottawa Senators vs San Jose Sharks Prediction: Best Bet for Saturday
Ottawa has the better record and the best player in this game, and it also has a genuine problem in net with Linus Ullmark out on injured reserve. San Jose allows 30.7 shots per game and keeps giving young teams chances to run. Saturday in San Jose is a test of whether Ottawa's skaters can outplay the risk their own crease creates.
The Matchup
Ottawa is 8-5-1 at minus-0.14, scoring 3.00 goals per game and allowing 3.14, and Tim Stutzle has been one of the best players in the league this month with 8 goals, 11 assists and 19 points. San Jose is 7-6-1 at minus-0.50, scoring 2.79 and allowing 3.29, and Macklin Celebrini leads the Sharks with 16 points and 11 assists while Will Smith has 6 goals.
The Sharks are fun, young and loose, and they allow 30.7 shots per game, the most on Saturday's slate, which is an invitation to a team with Stutzle's speed through the neutral zone. Ottawa's complication is real and it is in net. Linus Ullmark is out on injured reserve, and William Eklund and Warren Foegele are also on injured reserve for the Senators, with Andre Burakovsky day-to-day. San Jose's absences, Alexander Wennberg and Igor Chernyshov on injured reserve among them, cost the Sharks depth rather than their best players.
Key Factors
Everything about this game runs through Ottawa's crease. Samuel Ersson has a 4.47 goals-against average and a .849 save percentage, and Jonas Johansson sits at 4.04 and .861, so the Senators cannot win the low-event game even if they try to play it. The good news for Ottawa is that San Jose rarely lets anyone play a low-event game.
Yaroslav Askarov is at 3.01 and .900 for the Sharks, a clear edge on either Ottawa option, but he faces a Senators team that wins 52.1 percent of its faceoffs and can keep Celebrini's line defending instead of attacking. Special teams favor San Jose more than the records do. The Sharks convert 24.5 percent on the power play and kill 83.0 percent, while Ottawa's power play is stuck at 13.6 percent, so discipline matters for the visitors.
The honest counterpoint is obvious. If Askarov plays to his numbers and Ersson plays to his, San Jose wins this game, and the Sharks have won three of their last five at home with the crowd feeding a young team. Ottawa's case rests on its skaters being a class above, shift after shift, for long enough that the goaltending gap never gets the final word.
Ottawa's skaters are better at every position except the one in net, and San Jose gives up too many shots and too many rushes to protect its own goaltending edge for sixty minutes. Stutzle is the best player on the ice and the Sharks have no matchup for him. Take the Ottawa Senators moneyline at -135.
Game Information
| Date | Saturday (10/31) |
|---|---|
| Start Time | 3:00 PM CT |
| How to Watch | NHL |
| Venue | SAP Center at San Jose |
| Total | 6.5 |
| Moneyline | Ottawa Senators -135 |
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