Ottawa Senators vs Buffalo Sabres Prediction: Best Bet for Wednesday

Buffalo allows 3.43 goals per game and kills just 68.6 percent of its penalties, yet Ottawa arrives at 9-6-1 with Tim Stutzle driving an offense that scores 3.12 per game. Two teams that trade chances meet in Buffalo, and the one that defends its net for one extra shift probably takes it.

The Matchup

Ottawa is 9-6-1 and the steadier team in this game, even if the record alone does not shout it. The Senators score 3.12 goals per game and allow 3.19, a differential of -0.06 per game, and Tim Stutzle is the reason the offense travels. Stutzle leads Ottawa with 9 goals, 12 assists and 21 points, and he creates off the rush in a way that forces a defense to back off and give up the middle of the ice.

Buffalo is 7-4-3, and the Sabres have collected points without ever looking settled in their own end. Buffalo scores 3.07 per game and allows 3.43, a -0.36 differential, so the Sabres ask their offense to win a trade most nights. Tage Thompson gives them a real chance to do it, with 10 goals and 17 points, and Zach Benson has 11 assists setting him up.

The problem is what happens behind that top line. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen sits at a 3.40 goals-against average and a .874 save percentage, and a team allowing that much cannot afford the loose shifts Buffalo still gives away in front of him.

Buffalo's injury list touches the middle of the lineup. Jiri Kulich is day to day, and the Sabres will miss his energy if he sits. Keep an eye on whether Kulich plays before placing a bet. Justin Danforth is on injured reserve, and goaltender Alex Lyon is also on injured reserve, which thins the crease behind Luukkonen.

Key Factors

The penalty kill is where Buffalo bleeds, and it shapes how this game can be played. The Sabres kill just 68.6 percent of their penalties, so Buffalo cannot take the lazy stick fouls that a fast Ottawa team draws off the rush. Ottawa's own power play converts only 12.5 percent, which is the honest limit on that edge, but a kill that weak does not need a great power play across from it to give one back.

Ottawa kills 72.9 percent, hardly airtight, and Buffalo's power play converts 17.0 percent, so neither team wants a parade to the box. The team that stays five on five gets the game it wants, and Ottawa is better built for that game.

The favorite case is Buffalo at home, laying a short price with Thompson in form and three overtime losses showing how many close games the Sabres have played. It fails on the defensive numbers. Buffalo allows more per game, kills penalties worse, and gets the weaker goaltending of the two creases on the numbers available, while Ottawa's best player is the best player in the game. A home favorite needs at least one of those layers to lean on, and Buffalo does not cleanly own any of them.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.