Cincinnati Bearcats vs Dayton Flyers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

Cincinnati is 2-1 and allowing just 60.0 points a game, but the Bearcats have not left home yet. Dayton is 1-2, and Aiden Derkack, at 22.0 points and 10.3 rebounds a game, gets them at a packed UD Arena.

The Matchup

Cincinnati visits Dayton on Saturday at 6:30 PM CT at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio, on ESPN+, with Cincinnati a 6.5-point favorite, a total of 147.5, and no moneyline posted. It is a short trip and a real rivalry, and neither team is ranked. Cincinnati is a Big 12 Conference team; Dayton plays in the Atlantic 10 Conference.

Cincinnati is 2-1, scoring 73.7 points a game and allowing 60.0 this season. The Bearcats beat American University 79-53 and Green Bay 81-64 at home, then lost 63-61 to Minnesota at home on Monday. Myles Colvin leads them at 12.0 points and 6.0 rebounds a game, and Tylen Riley leads them at 3.7 assists a game.

Colvin and Riley carry no injury designations into this game. Cincinnati blocks 5.0 shots a game and forces 10.7 steals a game, so the defense is the calling card, while the offense shoots just 29 percent from three.

Dayton is 1-2, scoring 84.7 points a game and allowing 79.3 this season. The Flyers beat NJIT 89-58 at home, then lost 81-76 in overtime to Northern Illinois and 99-89 to Siena, both at home. Aiden Derkack has been superb, leading Dayton at 22.0 points and 10.3 rebounds a game on 66.7 percent shooting, and Landen Joseph leads them at 4.0 assists a game.

Derkack and Joseph carry no injury designations into this game. With only three games played, last season still colors both teams, and it colors them differently than the early records suggest: Dayton went 25-12 last season, scoring 71.8 a game and allowing 70.0 with Derkack now stepping into the lead role, while Cincinnati went 18-15 in the Big 12, scoring 71.7 and allowing 69.3.

Key Factors

Cincinnati's defense against Dayton's pace is the first factor. The Bearcats allow 60.0 points a game; the Flyers score 84.7. Something gives, and the tell will be turnovers: Dayton gives the ball away 14.7 times a game, and Cincinnati's pressure turns mistakes into the easy baskets its half-court offense struggles to create.

Derkack is the second factor. He is scoring 22.0 a game, rebounding at 10.3 a game, and shooting 66.7 percent, and Cincinnati's leading scorer, Colvin, is at 12.0 a game. When the best player on the floor plays for the home underdog, the favorite has to win the game in the aggregate, possession by possession, in a building that will be loud from the introductions.

The honest counterpoint is Dayton's start at home, because the Flyers have already lost twice in this building, to Northern Illinois and Siena, and allowed 99 points on Tuesday. Cincinnati is the deeper, more physical Big 12 roster, and if the Bearcats control the glass and slow Derkack's touches, their defense can squeeze the life out of this game and win it comfortably.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.