Colorado Avalanche vs Nashville Predators Prediction: Best Bet for Sunday

Colorado arrives in Nashville rested with its top line rolling, and the Predators come home on the second night of a back-to-back with their backup in net. That is a hard ask against the most dangerous attack in the league, and the gap should only widen as tired legs take over late.

The Matchup

This game turns on who is fresh and who is in net, and both answers favor Colorado. The Avalanche (6-4-1) last played Friday, when they beat Tampa Bay 6-3 behind a goal and three assists from Nathan MacKinnon and 31 saves from Mackenzie Blackwood. Blackwood sits tonight. Scott Wedgewood is expected to start for Colorado at 1-1-1 with a 2.65 goals-against average and a .912 save percentage, and he stopped 37 of 40 shots in a 4-3 road loss at New Jersey on Oct 20, so the rested team also gets the steadier of its two goalies in current form.

Nashville (3-3-4) played Saturday night in Pittsburgh, lost 3-2 in overtime despite 34 saves from Juuse Saros, and then flew home for the second night of a back-to-back. Saros will not be there to repeat it. Justus Annunen is expected to start for the Predators, and his only appearance this season was Thursday's 6-0 loss at Boston, where he made 25 saves.

The skaters widen the gap. Colorado scores 4.27 goals per game and has 40 even-strength goals, tied for the league lead, because its best players are all producing at once. MacKinnon has 20 points (seven goals, 13 assists) in 11 games and has 52 points in 42 career regular-season games against Nashville.

Cale Makar has 11 points this season and 25 points in 19 career games against the Predators, so the two players Nashville has to solve have spent years solving Nashville. Artturi Lehkonen leads the team with nine goals and is on a six-game point streak (six goals, three assists), doing the net-front and forecheck work that turns MacKinnon's rushes into second chances, and Martin Necas added a goal and two assists of his own on Friday.

Nashville generates only 24.8 shots per game and allows 29.3, and a tired team that already lives on low volume is a bad match for an opponent built to keep the puck in its end for shifts at a time. Colorado is not whole either. Zachary L'Heureux is out week to week with an upper-body injury, and Nicolas Roy is day to day with a lower-body injury.

Key Factors

The schedule mechanism is the obvious one, and it is real. Tired legs show up first in defensive coverage, in slow line changes and in late backchecks, and Colorado's game is designed to punish exactly that. The Avalanche generate 30.0 shots per game, and the longer this game goes, the more a Predators team playing its second game in two nights, with travel in between, has to defend.

Nashville's equalizer is its power play, converting at 28.6 percent against Colorado's 82.8 percent penalty kill, while Colorado's 20.0 percent power play meets an 83.3 percent Nashville kill. Special teams are close to a wash, which is precisely Nashville's problem. It needs the game to be decided there, because at five-on-five Colorado's scoring depth runs far past a Predators team scoring 2.56 goals per game.

Nashville's core explains that number. Steven Stamkos leads the Predators with five goals and 11 points, and he scored again Saturday in Pittsburgh, but Roman Josi's team-high eight assists and Filip Forsberg's seven assists against only one goal tell the story of a top end creating chances it is not finishing.

Against Saros, Colorado would have to beat an elite goalie playing well. Against Annunen, who was beaten throughout his only start on Thursday and now faces the league's second-highest scoring team on tired support, the Avalanche mostly have to be themselves.

The counterpoint is specific, and it is about Colorado's road form and Nashville's habit of dragging games to the wire. The Avalanche are only 2-3-0 on the road this season, the Predators already have three overtime losses because they keep games close even when they lose them, and Wedgewood is a backup having a good month rather than a goalie who steals games.

One early power-play goal for Stamkos or Josi's unit turns this into the one-goal grind the Predators want, and if Colorado's lead is only one late, the puck line is in real trouble. The reason to lay the goal anyway is the other crease and the other bench. A rested Colorado team needs only a steady night from its goalie, while Nashville needs its backup to stand up to sustained pressure behind tired legs for a full three periods.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.