Colorado Avalanche vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction: Best Bet for Tuesday

Colorado scores 4.00 goals per game behind Nathan MacKinnon and his 30 points, and Toronto has turned its own building into a problem, with four wins in eleven home games. The Maple Leafs' power play is good enough to keep any night interesting, which is exactly what makes this one worth watching.

The Matchup

Colorado is 10-6-2, scoring 4.00 goals per game and allowing 3.06, a +0.94 differential built on the league's most reliable kind of offense: one that starts with Nathan MacKinnon and does not stop there. MacKinnon leads the Avalanche with 30 points on 20 assists, and Artturi Lehkonen has 12 goals, so the finishing is spread across the top of the lineup instead of riding on one hot stick.

The honest warning sits in the splits. Colorado is 7-1-2 at home and 3-5-0 on the road, and the road version has been a full step below the one that plays in Denver.

Toronto is 8-9-2, scoring 3.37 per game and allowing 3.32 for a +0.05 differential, and the Maple Leafs have the same split problem in the opposite building. Toronto is 4-6-1 at Scotiabank Arena, where the home crowd has watched the defensive end leak all season, and 4-3-1 on the road.

Auston Matthews leads Toronto with 27 points on 11 goals and 16 assists, and he remains the player most likely to wreck any visiting team's night on his own. The question is never whether Matthews can score. It is whether Toronto can keep Colorado from scoring more.

Key Factors

The special teams battle is the best one on the Tuesday slate. Toronto converts 28.6 percent on the power play, and Colorado kills 78.2 percent of its penalties, so the Avalanche have a real problem if this game turns into a parade to the box. Colorado converts 23.3 percent against a Toronto kill of 85.9 percent, which means neither side gets its usual edge for free. The team that stays disciplined probably wins the special teams night outright, and that is a coin neither coach wants to flip often.

The crease leans Colorado's way on the numbers in front of us. Mackenzie Blackwood has a 2.60 goals-against average and a .901 save percentage for the Avalanche in 14 games, with Scott Wedgewood at 4.02 and .867 behind him. Toronto's Anthony Stolarz sits at 2.72 and .908 in seven games, and Sergei Bobrovsky is at 3.34 and .886 in twelve.

Toronto is also managing its blue line: Morgan Rielly is day-to-day with a lower body injury and a listed return date of November 10. Keep an eye on whether Rielly plays before placing a bet. Colton Sissons and Jack Roslovic are day-to-day with lower body injuries for Toronto, Kirill Marchenko is out on injured reserve with a lower body injury, and Colorado is missing Josh Manson, who is out on injured reserve with an ankle injury.

The Toronto case is Matthews, the 28.6 percent power play, and a Colorado team that has won three of eight road games. It fails on the building: Toronto has defended at 3.32 goals a night while going 4-6-1 at home, and a team that loose in its own end has to play a near-perfect game to beat the highest-scoring attack on the slate. Colorado's road split keeps this from being comfortable. It does not make Toronto the better team.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.