New Jersey Devils vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction: Best Bet for Sunday

Toronto owns both special teams units in this game by a distance, and New Jersey owns almost everything that happens at even strength. Jack Hughes and Auston Matthews have 47 points between them, and Sunday night in Toronto comes down to which version of the game gets played more often.

The Matchup

New Jersey is 11-5-0, scoring 3.50 goals per game and allowing 2.94, a +0.56 differential, and the Devils have gone 8-2-0 over their last ten, the hottest form line on the Sunday slate. Jack Hughes leads New Jersey with 8 goals, 13 assists, and 21 points. The road split is the ordinary part of the page, at 3-3-0, and the Devils keep winning anyway because their even strength game travels: 2.94 allowed is a number most home teams in this matchup cannot match.

Toronto is 8-7-2, scoring 3.65 per game and allowing 3.24 for a +0.41 differential. Auston Matthews leads the Maple Leafs with 11 goals, 15 assists, and 26 points, and Toronto is 4-4-1 at home and 5-4-1 over its last ten. The Leafs score with anyone. They also defend like a team that expects to, allowing 3.24 a night and splitting their home games down the middle. That tension, real scoring against real leaking, is the whole Toronto season in one line.

Key Factors

Special teams belong to Toronto, and New Jersey has to survive them rather than win them. The Maple Leafs convert 28.8 percent on the power play, and the Devils kill only 67.6 percent of their penalties, the weakest kill in this game. Toronto also kills 88.1 percent, so New Jersey's 18.0 percent power play is running into the best kill on the slate. Every Devils penalty is dangerous, and the New Jersey case only works if the game stays at even strength, where the Devils allow 2.94 a night and Toronto allows 3.24.

The crease gives New Jersey a second even strength edge. Connor Hellebuyck has a 2.44 goals-against average for the Devils, and Jake Allen sits at 3.11 and .887 behind him. Anthony Stolarz has a 2.66 goals-against average and a .910 save percentage for Toronto, the better of the two Leafs options, with Sergei Bobrovsky at 3.27 and .889. Morgan Rielly is day-to-day for Toronto with a lower body injury.

Keep an eye on whether Rielly plays before placing a bet. Kirill Marchenko is out today on injured reserve with a lower body injury, and New Jersey is missing only Seamus Casey, who is out on injured reserve with a knee injury.

The Toronto case is Matthews, the power play, and the building, and it is the strongest home case on the slate. It fails because it needs the game to be decided on special teams, and New Jersey plays the most disciplined even strength game in this matchup: eight wins in ten, 2.94 allowed, and a top line that matches Matthews shift for shift. Toronto's 3.24 allowed at five on five is where this game is lost.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.