Colorado Avalanche vs Ottawa Senators Prediction: Best Bet for Thursday

Colorado scores 4.11 goals per game and Ottawa has won six of nine at home, and both teams sit at 11-6-2 heading into Thursday. The records match. The way the two teams score does not.

The Matchup

Colorado is 11-6-2, scoring 4.11 goals per game and allowing 3.05, a +1.05 differential from the highest-scoring team on the Thursday slate. Nathan MacKinnon leads the Avalanche with 30 points on 20 assists, and Artturi Lehkonen has 13 goals, and that pairing sets the shape of every Colorado game: MacKinnon creates in waves and Lehkonen finishes at the net. The honest warning is the split: Colorado is 4-5-0 on the road, a full step below its home form, and the Avalanche have dropped road games this season that their attack should have won.

Ottawa is also 11-6-2, scoring 3.05 per game and allowing 3.00 for a +0.05 differential, and the Senators are 6-2-1 at Canadian Tire Centre. Tim Stutzle leads Ottawa in everything, with 9 goals, 14 assists and 23 points, and he is the player Colorado's game plan has to start with. Ottawa wins its home games by keeping them close and letting Stutzle decide the big shifts. The Senators rarely blow a team out, and they rarely get blown out, which makes them a hard opponent and a narrow one at the same time.

Key Factors

Special teams are where Ottawa's path narrows. The Senators convert just 12.7 percent on the power play, the second-weakest mark on the Thursday slate, and kill 76.1 percent of their penalties.

Colorado converts 22.6 percent and kills 78.6 percent, the better pair at both ends, so a game that turns on the extra man favors the visitors. Ottawa has to win this game five on five, and five on five is where Colorado's depth keeps coming: the Avalanche score from more lines than the Senators can match up against for sixty minutes.

The crease holds the game's biggest question. Linus Ullmark is day-to-day with a lower body injury for Ottawa. He is at a 1.33 goals-against average and a .945 save percentage in eight games, numbers that would give the Senators a real edge if he plays. Keep an eye on whether Ullmark plays before placing a bet.

Ottawa's other listed goaltender, Samuel Ersson, is at 3.11 and .885 in 10 games. Mackenzie Blackwood is at 2.63 and .901 in 15 games for Colorado, a steadier season line than Ersson's and the safer bet of the two creases if Ullmark sits. Ottawa is also without Nick Cousins, who is out tonight with an upper body injury, plus Andre Burakovsky, Warren Foegele and Victor Eklund, all on injured reserve. Colorado is missing Josh Manson, who is on injured reserve with an ankle injury, and Zachary L'Heureux, who is on injured reserve with an upper body injury.

The Ottawa case is the building, the 6-2-1 home mark, Stutzle, and Ullmark if he plays. It fails on the scoring depth and the power play: Ottawa scores a full goal a night less than Colorado and gets almost nothing from its extra man, so the Senators need a low-event game and their best goaltender to win it. That is a narrow path against this attack.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.