Colorado vs Arizona State Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 10

Colorado limps into Tempe with a 3-5 record and an offense still searching for an identity in November. Arizona State is hardly a finished product at 4-4, but the Sun Devils defend their home field with an edge Colorado has not shown on the road all season.

The Matchup

The offenses tell the first story. Arizona State scores 29.5 points per game behind Cutter Boley, who has thrown for 1,360 yards, and the Sun Devils have genuine weapons around him. Cardae Mack has rushed for 523 yards, and Reed Harris has piled up 804 receiving yards, the kind of number that forces a secondary to declare itself early. Colorado's offense has no equivalent.

The Buffaloes score 21.0 points per game, and while Isaac Wilson has thrown for 1,164 yards and Joseph Williams has been excellent with 732 receiving yards, the running game behind JaQuail Smith and his 361 yards has not traveled. Colorado's best result of the last month, a 27-24 win over Kansas State, came at home. On the road, the Buffaloes lost 27-24 at Utah in a game they nearly stole and were dismantled 57-24 at Oklahoma State.

Arizona State's own road form is shaky, but at home the Sun Devils beat Kansas State 28-17 and pushed BYU in a 27-20 loss. The defensive comparison is a wash on paper, both teams allowing right around 29.5 points per game, which puts the burden on offensive reliability. Arizona State simply has more of it, with a workhorse back and a top receiver producing at a level Colorado's skill group cannot match beyond Williams.

Key Factors

Colorado's defense is the liability that keeps surfacing. The Buffaloes allowed 57 at Oklahoma State and have struggled to get stops whenever an opponent commits to the run, which is precisely what Mack allows Arizona State to do. If the Sun Devils control early downs, Boley gets to throw on schedule to Harris, and Colorado's offense, which has topped 24 points once in its last three games, has to chase.

Chasing is where the Buffaloes break down: Wilson's supporting cast thins out quickly after Williams, and Arizona State's crowd in Tempe has made life miserable for one-dimensional offenses. The honest counterpoint is that Arizona State is nobody's picture of consistency. The Sun Devils were run off the field 53-25 at Texas Tech, and their defense gives up explosive plays in bunches, which is the one thing Colorado's offense can still produce through Williams downfield.

A couple of early Colorado strikes could flip the script and put Boley in comeback mode, where his season has been uneven. But the fuller body of work favors the home team: better rushing attack, better top-end receiver, and a Colorado defense that has been run through repeatedly this season. In a game where both defenses leak, trust the offense with more ways to score, playing at home, laying barely more than a field goal.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.