Oregon vs Ohio State Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 10

Ohio State just lost at USC, and the AP Top 25's No. 11 team comes home to Columbus with the best quarterback-receiver connection in the Big Ten and a defense allowing 15.5 points a game. Oregon arrives off a win at Northwestern with a passing game that produces 285 yards a night. The Horseshoe is the reward for both.

The Matchup

Julian Sayin to Jeremiah Smith is the most proven connection in the Big Ten, and it is the center of this game. Sayin has thrown for 2,007 yards with 19 touchdowns, Smith has 1,067 receiving yards, and Bo Jackson has rushed for 637 yards for an Ohio State offense scoring 36.6 points per game and throwing for 315.3 a night. The Buckeyes' defense allows 15.5 points per game. Their one blemish is fresh: a 30-18 loss at USC last week, the worst defensive day of their season, after wins over Indiana and Maryland.

Oregon's offense can test whether that blemish was a warning. The Ducks score 33.2 points per game and throw for 285.0 yards a night, with Dylan Raiola throwing for 1,097 yards, Jordon Davison rushing for 439, and Dakorien Moore at 545 receiving yards. Oregon just won 34-26 at Northwestern. But the Ducks' defense allows 21.4 points per game, and it has to stop Sayin and Smith in Columbus, which no defense has done for a full game this season.

Key Factors

Home field after a loss is the situational core. Ohio State's season body of work - 15.5 points allowed per game, a win over Indiana, a 45-point day against Maryland - says the USC game was the exception, and the Buckeyes get to answer it in their own stadium. Oregon's counterpoint is real: Davison gives the Ducks balance, their passing game is deep, and a favorite coming off its worst game of the season can start tight.

If Oregon scores first and the crowd gets anxious, this becomes a four-quarter fight. But over eight games the talent gap at the two positions that decide modern games, quarterback and number one receiver, belongs entirely to Ohio State, and Oregon's defense has not shown it can hold a passing game like this under 30. The Buckeyes win the kind of controlled home game this spread expects.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.