Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami CF Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - MLS

Seventh in the Eastern Conference and winners of six straight league matches, Columbus Crew travel to Nu Stadium for Game 1 of their best-of-three Round One series against hosts Inter Miami CF, second in the East, with Game 2 in Columbus six days later.

The Matchup

Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Round One series brings together two sides whose seasons point at the same kind of night. Inter Miami CF finished second in the East with 60 points and a 16-12-6 record, scoring 80 goals, the most in MLS, and conceding 59.

Columbus Crew finished seventh with 47 points and a 14-5-15 record, scoring 59 and conceding 52, and they arrive as the form side of the tie, winners of six straight league matches while Miami closed with two wins, two draws and a defeat in their last five. The series is best of three, and Game 2 is in Columbus on November 27, so Miami's one clear edge, this ground, has to count now.

Except that Nu Stadium has been a strange home all season. Miami scored 46 goals in 17 home matches, 2.71 a game, and still won only six of them, drawing nine, because they conceded 31 at home as well. The finale told the story in one night. Miami led Charlotte FC 3-0 after 42 minutes through Ian Fray, Luis Suárez and Rodrigo De Paul, and drew 3-3.

The attack is real and layered. Lionel Messi has 26 goals and 16 assists in 31 appearances with 183 shots, Suárez has 17 goals and 10 assists, Germán Berterame has 10 goals and 9 assists, De Paul has 16 assists and a team-high 1,942 accurate passes, and Telasco Segovia has 12 assists. Dayne St. Clair has made 75 saves behind them, a number that says the chances flow at both ends.

Columbus travel with the hottest attack in the conference and no reason to fear this fixture. They scored 15 goals in their last five league matches and 30 in 17 away matches, and the surge has a name. Gonzalo Tapia has 6 goals in 11 appearances, and five of them came in those last five matches, including two in the 4-3 win at Chicago Fire FC that closed the season.

Brais Méndez also has 6 goals, Taha Habroune has 5 goals and 5 assists, and Dylan Chambost, the team's assist leader with 9, set up five goals across the last five matches. Patrick Schulte has made 107 saves, 32 more than St. Clair, which fits a side that gives up 33 goals in 17 away matches and keeps playing through it. Columbus also took four points off Miami this season, winning 2-1 at home in September and drawing 2-2 at this ground in August.

Neither club has named its side yet. Miami are expected to stay with the team that started against Charlotte, St. Clair in goal, with Messi, Suárez and Berterame expected to start across the front line and De Paul expected to start in midfield. Columbus are expected to keep the back three from the Chicago win, Schulte in goal behind Sean Zawadzki, who has a team-high 1,992 accurate passes, with Tapia expected to start up front, Habroune and Santiago Rodríguez, who has 3 goals and 6 assists, expected to start either side of him, and Méndez expected to feature again after scoring the winner off the bench in Chicago.

Key Factors

The splits are the loudest thing in this tie. Miami's 17 home matches produced 77 goals, and Columbus's 17 away matches produced 63, because neither side's defensive split matches its attacking one. Miami concede 1.82 goals a game at home, Columbus concede 1.94 a game on the road, and both sides are built to keep attacking anyway.

Miami's last five matches brought 10 goals scored and 9 conceded, with a goal conceded in every one of them, and Columbus's last five brought 15 scored. A Game 1 between these two profiles does not need much help to open up, and an early goal either way forces the other side out of any cautious plan.

The honest counterpoint is that Columbus have shown they can shut a game down completely. They kept three straight clean sheets in this run, at FC Cincinnati, at FC Dallas and against D.C. United, and their back three can become a back five with Chambost and Anass Zaroury, who scored in two of the last five, dropping in to protect Schulte. If Columbus score first in Miami and choose that version of themselves, this game can stall at two or three goals, and Miami have already shown at Red Bull New York in October, where they lost 2-0, that a disciplined side can keep them quiet for a night.

What argues against the cagey version is everything Columbus have done since. The clean sheets came against sides that sat off them, and the moment Chicago traded punches on the final day, Columbus traded back and won 4-3. They beat Miami by playing in September, and they drew at this ground by playing in August.

Miami, for their part, do not close games down. A side that turns 3-0 into 3-3 at home on the final day is going to give Columbus their moments whatever the score, and both clubs have had 14 days to prepare for a series opener neither can afford to spend sitting in. The goals in this matchup live at both ends, and they have all season.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.