Atlante vs Tijuana Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Liga MX Apertura

Tijuana close the Apertura regular season at Estadio Caliente on Friday night knowing a win over Atlante keeps their postseason place in their own hands, while Atlante, sixteenth and already out of the running, arrive in Tijuana on a losing run with two starting defenders suspended.

The Matchup

Tijuana are ninth on 22 points, and everything good about their season has happened in this stadium. Xolos are 5-1-2 at Estadio Caliente with 14 goals scored and only 7 conceded, and goalkeeper Antonio Rodríguez has made 62 saves behind a defense that protects its own box first. The scoring is shared in a way that makes Tijuana hard to mark.

Gilberto Mora, the club's top scorer, has 5 goals in 11 appearances, Mourad El Ghezouani and Ignacio Rivero have 4 goals each, and Adonis Preciado has 3 goals and 3 assists from the left side. Rivero scored twice in the 4-1 home win over Santos on October 25, and Preciado scored in that match and twice more in the 3-3 draw at Monterrey six days later, so the form in this attack is current rather than a memory from August.

Atlante are sixteenth on 14 points and have lost their last three matches, and the 2-0 home defeat to Santos on November 6 cost them more than points. Aarón Quirós was sent off after 15 minutes and Walter Portales was sent off in stoppage time, so Atlante travel without two of the back five that started that match.

Jhojan Julio remains the outlet, with 3 goals and 4 assists, the best combined return in the side, and Martín Sarrafiore has 3 goals on a team-high 42 shots, but Atlante have scored 4 goals across their last five matches and 9 across eight away matches all season. Neither club has named its side yet. Tijuana are expected to stay in the 4-1-4-1 used at Necaxa, with Mora expected to start in midfield and El Ghezouani expected to lead the line, while Atlante are expected to bring Diogo Bagüí into the back five, with Julio expected to start up front.

Key Factors

The home and away splits point the same way as the table. Tijuana concede 0.88 goals per home match, while Atlante concede 1.75 per away match and now do it without Quirós and Portales. Tijuana also have the louder reason to chase this game.

Level on 22 points with Pachuca in eighth and one point behind León in seventh, Tijuana can be caught by Monterrey and Pumas UNAM, who sit one point behind them, so only a win makes their postseason place certain. Atlante cannot reach the top ten, because their best possible return is 17 points, and they close their season with pride as the prize in Tijuana.

The honest counterpoint is that Tijuana do not always turn control into goals. They have drawn seven matches this season, six of them away, and the finishing touch vanished entirely at Necaxa on November 6, when Mora played 70 minutes in his first start since returning from injury and Tijuana still left without a goal.

If Mora is still being managed back to full sharpness, a set Atlante back five can drag this toward a one-goal game, which settles a handicap like this one in halves: the -0.5 half of the stake wins, and the -1.0 half pushes. Atlante have also won twice on their travels, and Julio is the one visitor who has produced all season, so a home side chasing a second goal late is not chasing a side without a threat.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.