Creighton Bluejays vs Iowa Hawkeyes Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 3

Iowa is shooting 53 percent from the field, and Creighton has shot just 41 percent heading into a neutral-site meeting in Des Moines.

The Matchup

Creighton meets Iowa on Sunday at Casey's Center in Des Moines, on FS1, a neutral floor with Iowa favored by 3.5 points, a total of 145.5, and the Hawkeyes priced at -185 on the moneyline. Iowa is 2-1 out of the Big Ten Conference, and Des Moines puts the Hawkeyes in front of a crowd that will treat this as a home game. Creighton is 2-1 out of the Big East Conference, making the short trip from Omaha.

Iowa has been the cleaner offensive team. The Hawkeyes score 85.0 points a game and allow 64.7, shooting 53 percent from the field.

Creighton scores 80.3 a game and allows 68.3 while shooting just 41 percent, the weakest shooting number in this matchup. Last season Iowa went 24-13 while scoring 74.5 and allowing 66.3, and Creighton went 16-18 while scoring 75.2 and allowing 75.2, so Iowa's defensive edge this season lines up with the stronger program a year ago, while Creighton's even record last season came with a defense that gave back everything its offense earned.

Ty'Reek Coleman leads Iowa at 14.3 points a game, Trevin Jirak adds 4.3 assists a game, and Isaia Howard pulls down 7.7 rebounds a game. Wes Enis leads Creighton at 19.7 points a game, Katrelle Harmon adds 4.0 assists a game, and Jackson McAndrew leads the Bluejays at just 4.7 rebounds a game. Coleman, Jirak, Howard, Enis, Harmon, and McAndrew all carry no injury designations.

Key Factors

Creighton's rebounding is a real problem in this matchup. A team leader at 4.7 rebounds a game tells the story of a group without a true glass presence, and Iowa rebounds at 40.0 a game as a team with Howard setting the tone. Extra Iowa possessions against a defense allowing 68.3 points a game is how a small favorite builds a working margin without shooting the lights out.

Shot quality points the same way. Iowa at 53 percent from the field against Creighton at 41 percent is a wide gap, and it is not built on one hot night from one player: Iowa's scoring is balanced, with Coleman leading a group that shares the ball at 16.3 assists a game. Creighton leans on Enis for 19.7 a game, and a defense that can devote its best perimeter defender to him without paying elsewhere makes the Bluejays' secondary options prove it.

Creighton's path is its chaos. The Bluejays record 12.3 steals a game, and both teams turn the ball over 13.3 times a game, so a sloppy afternoon helps the underdog more than the favorite. If Enis gets loose early and Creighton's pressure speeds Iowa into rushed shots, this becomes a coin flip late, and Iowa's 2.0 blocks a game offers little rim protection when drives get to the basket.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.