Cruz Azul vs Guadalajara Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Liga MX

Cruz Azul sit first and Guadalajara third heading into the final Apertura round at Estadio Akron, and first place itself is the prize, with a Guadalajara win taking the hosts above the leaders and Cruz Azul knowing a win of their own locks the top spot.

The Matchup

The Apertura's final round sends Cruz Azul to Estadio Akron on Sunday evening with first place decided on the night. Cruz Azul sit first on 32 points with a 10-2-4 record, and Guadalajara sit third on 30 points at 8-6-2, level with América in second and holding the same +11 goal difference as the leaders.

A Guadalajara win takes the hosts above Cruz Azul, and into first place if América fail to win. A Cruz Azul win locks first place outright, and a draw leaves the leaders watching América's result, because América carry the stronger goal difference. Both clubs are already sure of a direct quarterfinal place, so this one is purely about who finishes top.

Cruz Azul arrive as the league's form side, five straight wins with 15 goals scored and 5 conceded across them. The run has taken in a 5-0 home win over FC Juárez, wins at Pachuca and Querétaro, a 2-1 home win over León and a 3-2 win at Tigres UANL last time out. The attack is the story of their season, 37 goals in 16 matches, second only to América's 38, and it travels, 18 goals in 8 away matches on a 5-1-2 road record. Andres Montaño has 6 goals and 5 assists and has scored in each of the last five matches, four of them from the penalty spot.

Nicolás Ibáñez also has 6 goals, Gabriel Fernandez has 5, and José Paradela and Carlos Rodríguez have 5 assists each, so the threat comes from everywhere. The cost sits at the other end. Cruz Azul have conceded 26 goals, 13 at home and 13 away, and only Atlas have conceded more among the top six. Kevin Mier has made 38 saves behind that defense.

Guadalajara are built the opposite way. Their 15 goals conceded are the fewest in the league, and Raúl Rangel has made 49 saves behind a back line that rarely gives a game away. At the Akron they are 5-1-2, scoring 15 goals and conceding 9, and their last five matches have brought draws with Tigres UANL and León either side of wins over Necaxa, Monterrey and Atlante. The scoring is shared rather than carried.

Ricardo Marín, Roberto Alvarado and Santiago Sandoval have 5 goals each, Sandoval scoring twice in the 4-2 win over Atlante and Alvarado scoring the early winner at Monterrey, while Efrain Álvarez leads the side with 3 assists. Guadalajara have also gone unbeaten away from home all season, 3 wins and 5 draws, which tells you how hard this side is to beat even before the Akron crowd gets involved.

Neither club has named its side yet. Cruz Azul are expected to keep the back five from the win at Tigres, Mier in goal, with Montaño and Paradela expected to start in midfield and Ibáñez expected to lead the line, and Fernandez expected to feature after scoring at Pachuca earlier in the run. Guadalajara are expected to stay with the side that drew at León, Rangel in goal behind Diego Campillo, Luis Romo and Daniel Aguirre, with Sandoval, Álvarez and Alvarado expected to start in attack and Marín expected to feature after scoring off the bench at León.

Key Factors

The tension in this game is written in the two clubs' scorelines. Cruz Azul matches have produced 63 goals in 16 rounds, and every one of their last five has finished with at least three goals on the board, the 5-0 win over Juárez and the 3-2 win at Tigres at either end of that run.

Guadalajara matches have produced only 41 goals all season, and four of their last five have finished with two goals or fewer, including 1-0 wins over Necaxa and Monterrey. One side keeps opening games up, at both ends, and the other keeps closing them down. Something has to give at the Akron, and what gives is usually decided by who scores first and what the table then demands.

The honest counterpoint is that Guadalajara's defense is exactly the kind that can strangle this bet. Fifteen conceded in 16 matches is no fluke across a full Apertura, Rangel is in form, and Guadalajara have scored a single goal in four of their last five matches, so a 1-0 home win or a 1-1 draw are both live, ordinary versions of this game. If Guadalajara score first and choose to protect it, Cruz Azul can spend a long evening passing in front of a set defense, and the total never gets going.

What keeps the open version in front is the table. Cruz Azul cannot settle for a draw with América's goal difference waiting behind them, and Guadalajara need the win to finish top, so a level game late helps nobody on the pitch.

Cruz Azul concede at the same rate home and away and have scored at least twice in every match of this five-game winning run, and Guadalajara's home scoring, 15 goals in 8 matches at the Akron, is their best attacking split of the season. A game that has to be chased by both sides, in front of a home crowd on the final night, is the game most likely to open up late, and exactly three goals only pushes the bet rather than losing it.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.