Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Bundesliga

Bottom club Borussia Mönchengladbach host second-placed Borussia Dortmund in the Borussia derby at BORUSSIA-PARK on Saturday morning, with Gladbach still chasing a first home win of the season and unbeaten Dortmund looking to keep pace with leaders Bayern Munich.

The Matchup

The Borussia derby comes to BORUSSIA-PARK on Saturday morning with the two clubs at opposite ends of the Bundesliga. Borussia Mönchengladbach are bottom, eighteenth with 4 points from a 1-1-7 record, and Borussia Dortmund are second with 21 points at 6-3-0, unbeaten through nine matches and level on points with leaders Bayern Munich.

Gladbach have conceded 25 goals, more than any other side in the league, and they are still waiting for a first home win. Dortmund have conceded 7, and the gap between the two defenses is the ground this match is played on.

Gladbach's home record offers the crowd little cover. They have drawn one and lost three at BORUSSIA-PARK, scoring 7 goals and conceding 10, with SV Elversberg and Mainz both winning 4-3 here in September. The attack leans on unlikely shoulders. Joe Scally, a defender, is the top scorer with 3 goals and 2 assists, and he scored at FC Cologne and in the 3-2 win at VfB Stuttgart in the last five matches.

Wael Mohya has 2 goals, scoring against TSG Hoffenheim and again at Stuttgart, and Hugo Bolin has 2 goals on a team-high 18 shots. It is honest work, but no Gladbach forward has taken a match over, and the side was shut out at home by SC Paderborn 07 in a goalless draw on October 31.

Dortmund travel with the opposite profile. They are unbeaten on the road at 2-2-0, with 6 goals scored and 4 conceded, and their season has been built on control rather than volume, 16 goals scored against 7 conceded in nine matches. Felix Nmecha leads the side with 4 goals and scored both goals in the 2-1 win over SV Elversberg on November 7.

Fábio Silva has 3 goals and 2 assists, scored the late equaliser in the 2-2 draw at Bayern Munich on October 31, and set up the first of the goals Nmecha scored against Elversberg. Gregor Kobel has made 26 saves behind a back line that rarely gives a game away.

Neither club has named its side yet. Gladbach are expected to stay with the side that played at Hamburg SV, Daniel Batz in goal behind Philipp Sander, Fabio Chiarodia and Kou Itakura, with Scally and Lukas Ullrich wide and Shuto Machino, Mohya and Robin Hack leading the attack.

Batz has started the last two matches in goal, with Moritz Nicolas, who has made 36 saves this season, absent from the squad for both of them. Dortmund are expected to keep the side that beat Elversberg, Kobel in goal, Nico Schlotterbeck and Waldemar Anton in the middle, and Fábio Silva leading the line with Carney Chukwuemeka and Konstantinos Karetsas either side of him and Nmecha in midfield.

Serhou Guirassy, who has 3 goals, 2 assists and a team-high 25 shots, scored at Bayern on October 31, and he was not in the squad at all against Elversberg a week later. Maximilian Beier, who has 2 goals and 2 assists, is expected to feature after setting up a goal off the bench in that Elversberg win.

Key Factors

The last five league matches describe the squeeze. Gladbach have lost three of theirs, winning only at Stuttgart and drawing with Paderborn, and they have scored 6 goals and conceded 9 across the run, closing it with a 3-1 defeat at Hamburg SV.

Dortmund have not lost any of theirs, with wins over Eintracht Frankfurt and SV Elversberg around draws with Werder Bremen, 1. FC Union Berlin and Bayern Munich, scoring 7 and conceding 5. Dortmund's wins in that run were narrow, 1-0 over Frankfurt and 2-1 over Elversberg, and their trip to Union Berlin finished goalless. This is a side that settles games instead of opening them.

The honest counterpoint is what Gladbach home matches have done to careful plans all season. Seventeen goals in four matches at BORUSSIA-PARK is a wild rate, and both September defeats here finished 4-3, with Gladbach chasing the game and the game chasing them back. The derby itself adds fuel.

Gladbach beat Dortmund 1-0 at this ground in May, the most recent meeting here, and a home crowd that smells an early goal can drag a bottom side into the kind of open game Dortmund want no part of. If Gladbach score first, or level late, the goals this pick cannot afford start to look very reachable, and four goals loses the bet outright.

What holds the read together is where the goals are supposed to come from. Gladbach's scoring lead sits with a defender, their attack managed no goals at home against Paderborn and one goal in each of the Cologne, Hoffenheim and Hamburg defeats, and Dortmund concede less than a goal a game, with the personnel to sit in and protect a lead rather than trade chances.

Both sides are rested, Gladbach after 15 days and Dortmund after 14, so tired legs will not open this up either. A derby between a side that cannot score freely and a side that will not defend loosely points to a tight afternoon, whatever the crowd wants.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.