TSG Hoffenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Bundesliga

Eintracht Frankfurt and TSG Hoffenheim meet at Deutsche Bank Park level on 12 points apiece, Hoffenheim ninth and Eintracht Frankfurt tenth with only goal difference between them, and a win for either side lifts them clear of the other in the middle of the Bundesliga table.

The Matchup

The Bundesliga returns at Deutsche Bank Park on Saturday with the table offering no room between these two. TSG Hoffenheim sit ninth and Eintracht Frankfurt tenth, the clubs level on 12 points, Hoffenheim ahead only because they have conceded 17 goals to Frankfurt's 20. Hoffenheim's record is 4-0-5 with no draws all season, Frankfurt's is 3-3-3, and a win for either side lifts them to 15 points and clear of the other.

Frankfurt's case starts with the two forwards who have carried them. Younes Ebnoutalib leads the side with 6 goals in 9 appearances on a team-high 22 shots, and Jonathan Burkardt has 5 goals in 9 appearances, including both goals in the 2-2 draw at Paderborn, the second deep in stoppage time. They have rotated rather than paired up lately, Burkardt starting at Paderborn while Ebnoutalib started the three matches before it, and each has decided a game in the last month, Ebnoutalib with the winner against Cologne and the third goal against Hamburg.

Behind them, Robin Koch leads the side with 417 accurate passes and Can Uzun has 2 goals, with an assist for Ebnoutalib against Hamburg. The problem is at the other end. Frankfurt have conceded 20 goals in nine matches, six of them in one afternoon at Leipzig, and Noah Atubolu has made 36 saves, a workload that tells its own story.

Hoffenheim arrive with the better recent rhythm and the more spread-out attack. Adam Daghim has 2 goals and 2 assists, Adam Hlozek has 2 goals on a joint team-high 23 shots, and Tim Lemperle has 2 goals in only 7 appearances, the latest coming in the 2-1 win over Schalke.

Fisnik Asllani also has 23 shots and shaped that Schalke win, scoring the opener and setting up Lemperle, while Andrej Kramaric scored as a substitute and then set up a goal in the 3-0 win over Leverkusen. Leon Avdullahu leads the side with 493 accurate passes and Oliver Baumann has made 21 saves. What Hoffenheim do not do is draw, and what they do not do well is defend away from home, with 9 goals conceded in four away matches and defeats at Cologne, Paderborn and Bremen.

Neither club has named its side yet. Frankfurt are expected to keep the side that drew at Paderborn, Atubolu in goal behind Koch, with Burkardt expected to start again after his two goals there and Ebnoutalib expected to feature. Hoffenheim are expected to stay with the side that beat Schalke, Baumann in goal, with Asllani and Lemperle expected to start again, and Daghim and Hlozek expected to feature after starting three of the last five.

Key Factors

The last five matches pull in opposite directions. Frankfurt have scored 6 and conceded 10, and even allowing for the six conceded at Leipzig, the pattern is a side that trades chances. Hoffenheim have scored 9 and conceded 7, with three wins in five, including the 3-0 defeat of Leverkusen that showed how dangerous they are when Asllani and Kramaric get time around the box.

Both sides are rested, Frankfurt after 14 days and Hoffenheim after 13, so tired legs explain nothing here. The game turns on which defense bends first, and Hoffenheim's away defense has bent in every road match this season, conceding at Cologne, Paderborn, Mönchengladbach and Bremen.

The honest counterpoint is Frankfurt's own defending, and it is a serious one. A side that concedes 20 goals in nine matches, four of them at home to Augsburg, can lose this game from a winning position, and Hoffenheim have the form to punish it, with Alexander Prass scoring in two of the last four and Bambasé Conté scoring in two straight earlier in this run.

If Hoffenheim score first, Frankfurt have to open up, and an open Frankfurt side is exactly how the Leipzig and Augsburg defeats got away from them. Hoffenheim do not do draws, so they will not come to protect a point either, and that cuts both ways.

What tilts it toward the home side is where the chances are likeliest to fall. Frankfurt score at home and Hoffenheim leak goals on the road, and Frankfurt have two forwards in Burkardt and Ebnoutalib who have each won a game in the last month. Hoffenheim's threat is real, but it has mostly lived at home, with 11 of their 16 goals scored there.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.