Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

San Antonio defends like a team ten years older than it is, and Dallas arrives missing bodies in the frontcourt. The Spurs should win. The margin is the argument.

The Matchup

San Antonio is 5-2, scores 117.6 points per game, and allows 108.3. Victor Wembanyama is the center of everything, a rim protector who also leads the offense, with De'Aaron Fox pushing the pace, Stephon Castle attacking the rim, and Dylan Harper giving the Spurs a third young creator.

Dallas is 4-3, scores 112.3, and allows exactly 112.3, a perfectly even team through seven games. Cooper Flagg is the Mavericks' future and increasingly their present, Kyrie Irving gives them a veteran closer, and Daniel Gafford gives them a vertical threat inside.

Dallas's report is the frontcourt problem. Dereck Lively II is out after foot surgery until around November 12, Max Christie is out until around November 6, and Santi Aldama is out after knee surgery. That leaves Gafford and a small committee to deal with Wembanyama, the hardest single matchup in the league. San Antonio is missing Tobias Harris, out with a calf strain until around November 9, and Jayden Quaintance, out after knee surgery.

DraftKings makes San Antonio an 11.5-point home favorite at Frost Bank Center, with a total of 227.5. The number is built on Wembanyama and on Dallas's missing bigs, and both inputs are real.

Key Factors

Wembanyama warps every Dallas possession. Drives that end in layups against normal centers end in floaters and kick-outs against him, and the Mavericks' offense, which leans on rim pressure from Flagg and its guards, has to win this game from the perimeter. The good news for Dallas is that its perimeter can score. Flagg, Irving, and P.J. Washington can all create a shot, and the Mavericks have enough shooting to make San Antonio's help decisions expensive.

San Antonio's own offense is the second question. The Spurs score 117.6 a night, but their half-court game still runs through young guards learning to play off Wembanyama, and Dallas's defense, while even on the season, has been solid against teams that play through one hub. If the Mavericks can make Fox and Castle finish over length instead of feeding Wembanyama in motion, the Spurs' scoring comes down to a normal level.

A spread this big also has a garbage-time problem for the favorite. San Antonio's young bench plays hard but loose, and Dallas's reserves include real scorers. Favorites up 18 in the fourth quarter lose covers to exactly this kind of road team, one with enough offense to win the last five minutes by a few points.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.