Sacramento Kings vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Sacramento is the league's last winless team, and the losses are not close, with 128.3 points allowed per game telling the story. Dallas is not a juggernaut, but a home game against this defense is the kind of spot where a solid team looks like one.

The Matchup

Sacramento is 0-6, the only winless team left, and the numbers are grim on both ends. The Kings score 109.3 points per game and allow 128.3, which means most of their games are decided before the fourth quarter starts.

Domantas Sabonis still produces, and Malik Monk gives Sacramento scoring off the bench, but the defensive shell around them has collapsed. Keegan Murray is out with an ankle injury until around November 6, Maxime Raynaud is out with a knee injury until around November 10, and Zach LaVine is day-to-day with right elbow soreness and a return date of November 2.

Dallas is 4-2, scoring 114.3 points per game and allowing 111.8, a solid if unspectacular profile built around Cooper Flagg's two-way play and Daniel Gafford's work inside. Kyrie Irving is day-to-day with a left knee problem and a return date of November 2, and his status matters, because Dallas's half-court offense is a different thing with him on the floor. Dereck Lively II is out after foot surgery until around November 12, so Gafford carries the center minutes either way.

DraftKings makes Dallas a 9.5-point home favorite at American Airlines Center, with the Mavericks at -395 on the moneyline and a total of 234.5.

Key Factors

Sacramento's defense is the pick, in one sentence. A team allowing 128.3 points a game has no scheme answer for a home favorite that can score from three levels, and Dallas does not need Irving at full tilt to find good shots against closeouts this slow. Flagg will attack a frontcourt missing Murray, and Sacramento's help defense has been late all season.

Irving and LaVine are the two statuses to watch, one on each side. Keep an eye on whether Irving plays before placing a bet, and the same goes for LaVine, whose scoring is most of what keeps Sacramento's offense respectable. If LaVine sits, Sacramento's path to keeping this close narrows to a Sabonis masterpiece. If he plays and Irving does not, the game tightens, and that is the honest risk in laying this many points.

Winless teams on the road have a habit of folding once the second run hits, and Sacramento has folded repeatedly already. Dallas has the depth to keep fresh defenders on the floor for 48 minutes, and a home crowd that smells a rout early. This is a spot bet on a broken defense, and the breakage has been consistent enough to trust.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.