Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

New Orleans has lost five straight and gives up more points than any team on this slate, yet Denver is being asked to win by double digits on the road with a scoring margin barely above water. The Pelicans still score freely in their own building, and that tension is the whole game at Smoothie King Center.

The Matchup

Denver is 6-4, scores 114.5 points per game and allows 113.3, a profile that wins often and separates rarely. Jamal Murray leads the Nuggets at 26.2 points per game, and Nikola Jokic runs everything at 9.0 assists and 10.8 rebounds a night. Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun give Denver size and energy on the wings, and the Nuggets are the steadier team in this game by any honest reading. Julian Strawther is out tonight with a sprain, a small dent in the bench shooting.

New Orleans is 4-9 and has lost five straight, scoring 116.5 points per game while allowing 125.6, the leakiest defense on this slate. Zion Williamson leads the Pelicans at 21.7 points per game, Jeremiah Fears leads the team at 4.9 assists, and Derik Queen leads the glass at 6.3 rebounds.

The injury report is the heaviest in this matchup. Dejounte Murray is out tonight, Trey Murphy III is out with tendinitis, Yves Missi is out with a bruise, Bryce McGowens is out with an infection, and Trendon Watford is out with a sprain. That is the Pelicans' lead guard, their best spacer, and most of their frontcourt depth gone at once.

Both teams have played at least ten games, so these are this season's numbers with nothing carried over. DraftKings makes Denver a 10.5-point road favorite at Smoothie King Center, with the Nuggets at -556 on the moneyline, the Pelicans at +417, and a total of 234.5.

Key Factors

The absences explain the size of this number, and they are already in it. A healthy New Orleans team would not be catching double digits at home against a Denver side with a scoring margin of 1.2 points per game.

What the price has to assume is that the Pelicans' remaining rotation cannot keep its own scoring afloat, and the season says otherwise. New Orleans scores 116.5 a night with this same short-handed group doing most of the work, because Williamson bends a defense on every trip and Fears keeps the pace up behind him.

Denver's own profile argues against a rout. The Nuggets win with execution, not waves of separation, and a team allowing 113.3 points per game gives a home underdog repeated chances to answer. New Orleans only needs its ordinary home offense to stay inside this number, and the Pelicans' home floor has produced that offense all season even as the losses piled up.

The honest counter is the Pelicans' defense. A team allowing 125.6 points per game can lose contact in one bad quarter, and Jokic picking at a thinned frontcourt is exactly how a close game becomes a blowout. If Denver defends Williamson with discipline and the Pelicans' spare shooters go cold, this number is reachable. It asks a lot of things to go right at once, on the road, for a team that has rarely separated from anyone.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.