New Orleans Pelicans vs Golden State Warriors Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Golden State has won five straight and Stephen Curry is scoring 31.2 points a night, but the Warriors are trying to cover a big number with Jimmy Butler III, Kristaps Porzingis and Moses Moody all out. New Orleans scores with anyone and guards no one, and the tension at Chase Center is whether a thin home rotation can actually pull away from a team this loose.

The Matchup

Golden State is 7-3, scores 118.6 points per game and allows 113.6, and the Warriors have won five straight, the last a 126-119 overtime win over Orlando on Friday. Stephen Curry leads Golden State at 31.2 points per game and Draymond Green leads the team at 7.8 assists, with Yaxel Lendeborg leading the glass at 7.2 rebounds.

The rotation behind them is thin tonight. Jimmy Butler III is out after right knee surgery, Kristaps Porzingis is out with an illness, Moses Moody is out after left knee surgery, and Will Richard is out with a left thumb injury. Gui Santos is day-to-day with left knee tendinitis.

New Orleans is 4-6, scores 120.5 and allows 120.8, and the Pelicans are the rare team that can be outscored on the season while scoring like a contender. Zion Williamson leads New Orleans at 20.6 points per game, Dejounte Murray leads the team at 5.3 assists, and Derik Queen leads the glass at 7.4 rebounds. New Orleans lost 139-123 at the LA Clippers on Sunday night and flew up the coast afterward. Yves Missi is out with a left knee bruise, and he is the only Pelican on the injury report.

Both teams have played 10 games, so these are this season's numbers with nothing carried over. DraftKings makes Golden State a 9.5-point home favorite at Chase Center, with a total of 231.5 and the Warriors at -378 on the moneyline.

Key Factors

Availability is the whole argument. Golden State's five-game win streak was built with more depth than it has tonight, and every Butler or Porzingis minute now falls to a bench that has to guard Williamson and Queen inside. New Orleans does not need to stop Curry to stay inside a number this size; it needs its own offense, which scores 120.5 points per game, to keep trading baskets.

The pace helps the visitor's case. New Orleans allows 120.8 points per game because its games turn into track meets, and track meets compress margins in both directions, the favorite piling up points without ever quite shaking loose. The posted total tells the same story about how this game is expected to be played.

The honest counter is the calendar and the closer. New Orleans played Sunday night in Los Angeles and Golden State has been home resting since Friday, and if the Pelicans' legs go in the third quarter, Curry is the one player in this game who can turn a close night into a rout in four minutes. The points ask New Orleans to survive that one run, not to win the game.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.