Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Phoenix cannot defend anyone right now, and that is the whole case against the Suns. The case for them is quieter: they are the freshest team on the slate, Devin Booker is home, and Denver's offense has scored like a middle-of-the-pack team while its wing rotation thins out.

The Matchup

Denver is 2-2, and the surprise is the offense. The Nuggets score 110.8 points per game and allow 114.0, ordinary numbers for a Nikola Jokic team, and they beat New Orleans 104-91 on Wednesday in a grind. Jokic leads Denver at 9.0 assists and 10.5 rebounds per game, Jamal Murray leads the team at 22.5 points per game, and the two-man game between them is still the hardest action in the league to guard.

The wing rotation around them is thin. Cameron Johnson is out with a sprain, Julian Strawther is out with a sprain until around November 29, and Spencer Jones and Alpha Diallo are also out, which pushes Denver's bench minutes onto players the Suns can target.

Phoenix is 1-2, and the defense is a genuine problem. The Suns score 109.3 points per game and allow 123.7, the worst mark on tonight's slate, and they have not played since early in the week, making them the freshest team playing tonight. Devin Booker leads Phoenix at 22.7 points and 5.3 assists per game, and Khaman Maluach leads the team at 7.3 rebounds per game. Mark Williams is out after surgery, a long absence that leaves Phoenix small inside against Jokic, and Oso Ighodaro is day-to-day with a strain.

Keep an eye on whether Ighodaro plays before placing a bet, because Phoenix needs every frontcourt body it has for this matchup. With both teams only a week into the season, these numbers pair this season's games with last season's final marks. Denver outscored opponents by 5.2 points per game last season and won 54 games, while Phoenix was a winning team in its own right, so the Nuggets' edge is earned history rather than current form.

DraftKings makes Denver a 4.5-point road favorite at Mortgage Matchup Center, with the Nuggets at -170 on the moneyline and a total of 231.5.

Key Factors

Jokic against a small, Williams-less frontcourt is Denver's clearest path, and Phoenix knows it. The Suns will send doubles and live with Denver's role players shooting, which is a reasonable plan made shakier by Johnson's absence, because he is exactly the kind of shooter who punishes that coverage. If Christian Braun and Aaron Gordon make their open shots, Denver pulls away. If they do not, Booker gets a close game at home in the fourth quarter, and that is a trade Phoenix makes every time.

Rest is the Suns' second edge, and it is not small. Phoenix has had most of the week off while Denver played Wednesday, and the Nuggets' rotation is short enough that fresh legs show up in the second half. Booker hunting Denver's backup wings in the fourth quarter of a one-possession game is the scenario this pick is built on.

The counterpoint deserves plain words. Phoenix's defense has been bad enough to lose this bet by itself. A team allowing 123.7 per game can watch Jokic and Murray pick it apart methodically until the margin is 12 and the rest edge stops mattering. The Suns have to defend at a level they have not shown yet. At home, rested, catching points against a road favorite whose offense has been ordinary, the price gives them room to be merely better, not transformed.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.