Orlando Magic vs Toronto Raptors Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Orlando lost in this building by 30 points on Wednesday, and the rematch comes two nights later with the Magic missing even more of their offense. Toronto defends as well as anyone in the league right now, and Orlando has one creator left to throw at it.

The Matchup

These teams played this exact game on Wednesday, and it was not close. Toronto won 129-99 at Scotiabank Arena, and the rematch comes two nights later with Orlando in worse shape than it was then.

The Raptors are 3-1, they score 117.5 points per game, and they allow 102.5, the best defensive mark on tonight's slate. RJ Barrett leads Toronto at 22.0 points per game, Immanuel Quickley leads the team at 5.5 assists per game, and Scottie Barnes leads the Raptors at 7.2 rebounds per game while guarding the opponent's best wing.

Orlando is 1-3 and running out of creators. The Magic score 107.0 points per game and allow 119.5, and their injury report explains the offense. Paolo Banchero is out with a sprain, with a return expected around November 22, and he is Orlando's best player.

Jalen Suggs is out until around November 10, Jonathan Isaac is also out, and that leaves Franz Wagner to do everything. Wagner leads Orlando at 19.5 points and 6.0 assists per game, and Wendell Carter Jr. leads the team at 9.0 rebounds per game, but one creator against a set defense is a hard way to live. Toronto is missing a star of its own.

Kawhi Leonard is out with inflammation, with a return expected around November 23, which lowers the Raptors' ceiling considerably, though not their defensive floor. With both teams only a week into the season, these numbers pair this season's games with last season's final marks, and last season these were comparable teams. This week, they are not.

DraftKings makes Toronto a 5.5-point home favorite, with the Raptors at -205 on the moneyline and a total of 225.5.

Key Factors

The schematic problem for Orlando is simple. Toronto can put Barnes on Wagner, switch everything else, and dare the rest of the Magic to create shots. On Wednesday that produced a 30-point loss, and Orlando has had one practice day and a flight-free turnaround to fix it with the same available players. Rematches two nights later usually tighten up, because the loser adjusts, but adjustments require options, and Banchero and Suggs were most of Orlando's options.

Toronto's offense is the other half of it. The Raptors scored 129 on Wednesday by spreading Orlando out and attacking closeouts, and Barrett and Quickley both get downhill against a Magic defense that has allowed 119.5 per game. Leonard's absence removes Toronto's best half-court bailout, which is the one thing that could keep this close late. If the Raptors' role players go cold from three, Orlando can hang around on effort and Wagner's craft.

That is a thin path. Toronto defends its home floor, it just demonstrated exactly how it beats this team, and Orlando's missing players are the ones who would change the rematch. A favorite in this spot does not need to win by 30 again. It needs to win the Wagner minutes and the non-Wagner minutes, and on Wednesday it won both by plenty.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.