Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week
New Orleans is winless, allows 128.0 points per game, and is somehow still a live home team in this matchup, because the Pelicans also score 124.7 a night. Denver has the best player in the game and a defense that has traveled poorly. This has the shape of a shootout the favorite cannot quite close.
The Matchup
Denver is 1-2, which feels wrong until the defensive numbers come up. The Nuggets score 113.0 points per game and allow 121.7, and Nikola Jokic is doing his usual everything, leading Denver at 22.3 points, 9.7 rebounds and 8.7 assists per game.
Jamal Murray and DeMar DeRozan give the Nuggets two more closers, and Denver went 54-28 last season, so the slow start is about the defensive end, not the talent. Cameron Johnson is day-to-day tonight with a sprained right ankle. Keep an eye on whether Johnson plays before placing a bet. Julian Strawther is out with a sprained left knee.
New Orleans is 0-3 and plays the wildest games in the league. The Pelicans score 124.7 points per game, second only to the Lakers tonight, and allow 128.0, which is why the scoring has not bought a win.
Zion Williamson leads New Orleans at 20.7 points per game, Dejounte Murray runs the offense at 6.3 assists per game, and Derik Queen leads the Pelicans at 8.3 rebounds per game. Jordan Poole is day-to-day tonight through an illness, and Yves Missi is out with a bruised left knee. New Orleans went 26-56 last season, and this start says the defense is still a rumor.
DraftKings makes Denver a 4.5-point road favorite at the Smoothie King Center, with a total of 238.5, the second-highest on tonight's board.
Key Factors
Jokic will get his, and the question is what Denver's defense gives back. The Nuggets' road defense has been a step slow in rotation all month, and New Orleans attacks in waves, with Williamson at the rim and Murray pushing every miss into an early shot. A home team that scores 124.7 does not need to stop Denver. The Pelicans need to keep answering, and their building feeds that style.
Zion against Denver's frontcourt is the individual battle. Denver has size but not much rim protection behind Jokic, and Williamson's whole game is getting to the front of the rim against size. If he is finishing through contact and living at the line, New Orleans stays in its highest gear. If Denver walls him off without fouling, the Pelicans' offense drops to jump shots, and jump shots end runs.
The endgame favors the points. Denver's closing possessions are the best in the league because Jokic decides them, and that is why the Nuggets are favored. But a favorite that cannot get stops has to be perfect late to build margin, and New Orleans, winless and at home, will play the fourth quarter like a team with nothing to protect. Those teams are hard to shake.
Denver has Jokic and the better team, but the Nuggets have defended nobody on the road, and New Orleans scores too freely at home to be put away early. A winless home team with this much offense, getting points in a shootout, is the side. Take the New Orleans Pelicans +4.5 at -105.
Game information
| DATE | Wednesday (10/28) |
|---|---|
| START TIME | 7:00 PM CT |
| HOW TO WATCH | League Pass |
| VENUE | Smoothie King Center |
| SPREAD | Denver Nuggets -4.5 |
| TOTAL | 238.5 |
| MONEYLINE | Denver Nuggets -185 |
More picks this week
Player props for this game
2 props- Nikola Jokic PointsUnder 26.5 -106
- Derik Queen ReboundsOver 7.5 +108
Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.